Equities Trading Guide: BT Group

Calendar February 4, 2012 | Posted by Robert

Where can I Spread Bet on BT Group?

 

You can place spread bets on BT Group shares with:

The spread betting companies mentioned above also offer tax free* spread betting on a range of other financial markets such as stock market indices, commodities and forex.

For more information about:

 

BT Group Spread Trading Example

 

On Friday, the price of the BT Group Rolling Daily market was 212.3p – 212.8p with Capital Spreads.

As with most large cap equities listed on the leading stock exchanges, an investor can speculate on the BT Group shares to rise or fall in value. With this BT Group Rolling Daily market, investors can place a spread bet on:

a) BT Group shares to rise above 212.8p, or
b) BT Group shares to fall below 212.3p.

With the BT Group market you trade in £X per penny, where a penny is 1p of BT Group share price movement. As a quick example, if your stake was £20 per penny and the BT Group share price moved 5p then that would be a difference to your profits (or losses) of £100.

 

BT Group Shares Spread Betting Example

 

For example, let’s say you see the live price on an online spread betting website that gives the current spread of 212.3p – 212.8p. After your research, you might think that the BT Group shares will increase and move higher than 212.8p. As a result:

  1. You think the BT Group share price will increase
  2. Therefore, you decide you are going to ‘buy’ the market at 212.8p and risk £10 per penny
  3. The market rises with the market changing to 221.8p – 222.3p
  4. With the new price you can decide to guarantee a profit and settle your bet. In order to do this you would sell at 221.8p
  5. Price you bought the market at: 212.8p
  6. Profit = (Closing Level – Initial Level) x stake
  7. Profit = (221.8p – 212.8p) x £10 per penny
  8. Profit = 9.0p x £10 per penny
  9. Profit = £90.00 profit

 

Investing does not always go to plan. If the trade did not work as forecasted, and had the BT Group stock decreased in value, with the spread moving down to 202.2p – 202.7p, then you could decide to close your bet and cut your losses. To do this you would sell at 202.2p.

  1. Initial price you bought the spread bet at: 212.8p
  2. Loss = (Closing Level – Initial Level) x stake
  3. Loss = (202.2p – 212.8p) x £10 per penny
  4. Loss = -10.6p x £10 per penny
  5. Loss = -£106.00 loss

 

Please note that when Rolling a bet over to the subsequent day you may incur a charge or income for every day that the trade is continued. To learn more see: Rolling Daily Spread Betting Charges.

(Market quoted as of 03-Feb-12)

 

Latest Financial Spread Betting Accounts and Offers

 

If you are considering spread trading as a part of your portfolio then for more details on:

 
Important Note: Spread betting is a leveraged investment product, it involves a high degree of risk to your funds and can result in you losing more than your initial stake. Ensure that it fits your investment requirements as it might not be suitable for all types of investor. Before you trade, make sure you are fully aware of the risks. Only speculate with funds that you can afford to lose. Where necessary seek independent financial advice.

* As per current UK and Irish tax law, this may change/differ depending on your own situation.

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Online Spread Betting: Speculation of QE Grows After Weak UK PMI Data

Calendar February 3, 2012 | Posted by Robert

One week on from EU commissioner Olli Rehn’s promise that a Greek debt deal was in the final hours of finalisation, and spread betting markets are still awaiting confirmation of that fact.

It now appears we will have to wait until next Monday 6th February after yesterday’s announcement of an EU finance ministers meeting in Brussels.

This meeting will attempt to agree a new bailout, the size of the haircut applied to private bond holders, as well as new reforms the Greek government needs to undertake, which it is hoped finally draw a line under this long running saga.

The concern is that any new austerity measures will be a step too far. Given the recent fiscal deterioration and with the economy in its current state, and no involvement in the debt restructuring from the ECB and EU governments, policymakers could well be throwing good money after bad.

As far as economic data is concerned the European services sector could shed a ray of light on proceedings with the final release of PMI data for January for Italy, Germany, France and the broader Eurozone.

Expectations are for all but the Italian PMI to remain unchanged from their previous readings, with the Italian PMI improving from 44.5 to 45.4, in line with the improved manufacturing PMI’s earlier this week.

The European consumer, on the other hand could throw a spanner in the works given the awful German retail sales numbers seen earlier this week.

Eurozone retail sales for December are expected to show an increase of 0.3%, up from November’s -0.8%.

That was before we saw German sales figures plunge 1.4%, for the same month earlier this week, which suggests that the Eurozone estimate could well be on the optimistic side.

In the UK speculation about further QE next week refuses to subside after yesterday’s construction PMI data slipped back to 51.4, below expectations of 52.5.

Today’s release of January services PMI is the most important number given that it makes up over two thirds of the UK economy, with expectations that it could see a slip back to 53.3 from 54 in December.

A sharper drop could well make it quite likely that the Bank of England could well embark on a further round of easing next week given policymaker Adam Posen’s comments yesterday, about the lack of lending by banks in the broader economy.

It is by no means certain that other policymakers feel the same way especially given David Miles comments that it would be presumptuous of the online spread betting markets to presume further QE was a done deal.

In the US the state of the jobs market remains in the spotlight after this week’s ADP numbers came in on the light side of expectations with the January jobs report.

Expectations are for January non-farm payrolls to slip back from December’s 200k gain to show a gain of 150k, while December’s figure could also get revised down.

Fed Chairman Bernanke yesterday reiterated his concerns about the health of the US jobs market in testimony to the House Budget Committee, despite recent positive signs in weekly jobless claims and recent monthly payroll reports.

The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 8.5%.

EURUSD

 
The single currency continues to remain range bound between this week’s lows at 1.3030 and the resistance at the 1.3240/50 area.

This is the 38.2% retracement of the down move from the October highs at 1.4250 to the recent lows at 1.2610, remains the key resistance on the topside.

A sustained break below the 1.3050 support area is required to retarget last Wednesday’s lows at 1.2940/50 level.

While below the highs of this week the bearish reversal on the daily candle charts keeps the focus for a move lower.

The key support level remains around the 1.2850/60 area and only below this level reopens a move towards the key 1.2600 level.

GBPUSD

 
The divergence on the four hour charts continues to suggest we could be nearing a top especially given the proximity of the 200 day MA at 1.5965.

The high so far this week is at 1.5880 and I certainly wouldn’t rule out further gains towards these highs

It still needs a sustained move back below 1.5740 to retarget this weeks low at 1.5640, while below that the 1.5530 area and last weeks low could see some buying interest as well.

EURGBP

 
Another choppy day yesterday saw the euro swing between the 0.8340 level and the support at the 0.8275 level. The onus remains for a move lower while below the larger resistance level at the 0.8420 level.

The January lows at 0.8220 remain the next target on a break below 0.8275, but it would require a break below the September 2010 lows at 0.8200/05, to target the 2010 lows at 0.8065.

USDJPY

 
No change in tone here after this week’s move below the 76.50 level the mood has turned decidedly bearish, with the risk for a move back towards the all time lows at 75.30.

The US dollar needs to get back above the 76.50 level to stabilise in the short term and alleviate the downside pressure.

The 200 day MA at 78.25 remains the key barrier to a US dollar turnaround after last week’s failure at that level.

Equity market calls

 
FTSE 100 is expected to open unchanged at 5,796.

DAX is expected to open 7 points higher at 6,663.

CAC40 is expected to open unchanged at 3,377.

FTSEMib is expected to open unchanged at 16,277.

Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital and it is possible to lose more than your initial investment. Spread betting may not be suitable for all investors. Ensure you understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if and where necessary.

Forex trading news by Michael Hewson, Analyst, CMC Markets.

CMC Markets is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority, register no. 173730.

Any CMC Markets research and charting tools are indicative, they are provided for information purposes, they must not be relied upon as investment advice. CMC Markets provide an execution-only service.

The above content should not be construed as a recommendation or offer to buy or offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument by CMC Markets. The content is not a recommendation. You should seek independent advice as to 1) your suitability to speculate in any related markets 2) your ability to assume the associated risks 3) the tax, legal and accounting consequences of any transaction.

Category Categories: Financial Markets, Spread Betting News, Spread Betting on Currencies, Spread Betting on Forex, Spread Betting on Indices | Tag Tags: | Comments No Comments »

Strong UK PMI Data Boosts GBP/USD Spread Betting Market

Calendar February 2, 2012 | Posted by Robert

Concerns about the health of the UK economy received an unexpected boost yesterday after manufacturing PMI for January bounced back quite sharply, well above expectations raising the prospect that the economy may avoid a second negative quarter in a row.

The index jumped to 52.1, its highest level since May last year and well above expectations of 50, while the new orders index also rose sharply.

While a welcome boost to sentiment, it remains too early to get carried away by one set of numbers, but it’s a good start and today’s construction PMI could go further in reinforcing a bounce back. Expectations are for a slight decline from 53.2 in December to 52.5.

If Services PMI, which makes up two thirds of the UK economy shows similarly robust readings tomorrow then we could well see the pound continue to build on the gains seen in the past two weeks.

It could even give the Bank of England pause for thought and hold fire on the expected start of further asset purchases next week, to assess the effects that the most recent round is starting to have on the economy.

Given that it’s Groundhog Day today its particularly apt that Greece continues to be the centre of continued speculation about what’s happening with respect to the debt talks and the latest bailout.

Even so spread betting markets are now so bored with it, any comments by EU officials are now being dismissed with a perfunctory shrug and an “I’ll believe it when I see it” attitude.

Even some negative comments from ratings agency Fitch officials failed to illicit any market response of note.

The bond markets appear to be displaying similarly relaxed attitudes with recent falls in European bond yields bringing some welcome respite to fiscally stretched countries.

With that in mind this morning’s Spanish and French bond auctions should go off without too much fanfare, as Spain’s 10 year bond yields fell to their lowest levels in months, below 5%.

Spain is looking to sell €3.5bn – €4.5bn of 3, 4 and 5 year bonds while France is looking to offload €6.5bn – €8bn of 7, 8 and 10 year bonds.

In the US, in the wake of yesterday’s ADP numbers, which came in pretty much as expected at 170k, US weekly jobless claims are expected to stay around the 375k level that we saw last week.

The main event however is likely to be Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony towards House Budget Committee.

Here he can expect some tough questioning about the reasoning behind the Fed’s decision to pre-commit to ultra low rates for the next two years, given the fact that the US economy appears to be showing some signs of life.

EURUSD

 
It looks for now as if the single currency is range bound between the low 1.3000’s.

The resistance at the 1.3240/50 area which is the 38.2% retracement of the down move from the October highs at 1.4250 to the recent lows at 1.2610, remains the key resistance on the topside.

A sustained break below the 1.3050 support area is required to retarget last Wednesday’s lows at 1.2940/50 level which prompted the sharp rebound at the end of last week.

While below the highs of this week the bearish reversal on the daily candle charts keeps the focus for a move lower.

The key support level remains around the 1.2850/60 area and only below this level reopens a move towards the key 1.2600 level.

GBPUSD

 
Yet another positive day for GBP/USD currency pair despite sliding briefly below 1.5740 yesterday keeps the focus on for a move towards the 200 day MA at 1.5965.

It still needs a sustained move back below 1.5740 to retarget this weeks low at 1.5640, while below that the 1.5530 area and last weeks low could see some buying interest as well.

EURGBP

 
A rather choppy day yesterday saw the euro squeeze back to 0.8340, however the onus remains on a move lower while below the larger resistance level at the 0.8420 level.

The January lows at 0.8220 remain the next target on a break below 0.8275, but it would require a break below the September 2010 lows at 0.8200/05, to target the 2010 lows at 0.8065.

USDJPY

 
In USD/JPY spread betting, this is no change in tone here after this week’s move below the 76.50 level the mood has turned decidedly bearish, with the risk for a move back towards the all time lows at 75.30.

The US dollar needs to get back above the 76.50 level to stabilise in the short-term and alleviate the downside pressure.

The 200 day MA at 78.25 remains the key barrier to a US dollar turnaround after last week’s failure at that level.

Equity market calls

 
FTSE100 is expected to open 11 points higher at 5,802.

DAX is expected to open 24 points higher at 6,640.

CAC 40 is expected to open 5 points higher unchanged at 3,372.

FTSEMib is expected to open 11 points higher at 16,275.

Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital and it is possible to lose more than your initial investment. Spread betting may not be suitable for all investors. Ensure you understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if and where necessary.

Forex trading news by Michael Hewson, Analyst, CMC Markets.

CMC Markets is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority, register no. 173730.

Any CMC Markets research and charting tools are indicative, they are provided for information purposes, they must not be relied upon as investment advice. CMC Markets provide an execution-only service.

The above content should not be construed as a recommendation or offer to buy or offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument by CMC Markets. The content is not a recommendation. You should seek independent advice as to 1) your suitability to speculate in any related markets 2) your ability to assume the associated risks 3) the tax, legal and accounting consequences of any transaction.

Category Categories: Financial Markets, Spread Betting News, Spread Betting on Currencies, Spread Betting on Forex, Spread Betting on Indices | Tag Tags: | Comments No Comments »

Spread Betting: New Fiscal Compact Sees Spanish and Italian Bond Yields Fall

Calendar February 1, 2012 | Posted by Robert

The North/South divide in the Eurozone could not have been more apparent yesterday with the release of the latest unemployment figures, with German unemployment falling to post unification lows of 6.7%, while unemployment in Holland and Austria is under 5%.

In sharp contrast, the unemployment rate in Italy rose to 8.9% with Greece and Spain showing double digit rises, with youth unemployment particularly high.

Given Germany’s place in Europe and the role they have in implementing budget discipline amongst other EU members, it is a problem that probably isn’t as high up their list of priorities. Thus, it may not be given the same sense of urgency as it probably could be.

This could prove costly for Eurozone cohesion and today’s final manufacturing PMI numbers for January are likely to reinforce these divisions.

French, German and Eurozone PMI’s are expected to stay unchanged from the previous readings of 48.5, 50.9 and 48.7 respectively, while Italian PMI is expected to improve slightly from 44.3 to 45.3.

These weak numbers highlight the importance of getting measures in place to bolster the various economies in Europe.

The fiscal compact agreed earlier this week has helped Spanish and Italian bond yields fall back in the past couple of days giving welcome respite to both countries who have significant amounts of debt to be rolled over this month.

Concerns about the Greece debt swap deal and a new bailout aren’t likely to be too far away, with pressure increasing on the ECB with respect to its own bond holdings.

Pressure is also being increased on Athens to implement new measures and reforms to close a funding gap since the original bailout deal was agreed in October.

Agreement on this is by no means certain with ECB member Nowotny suggesting that whether Greece stays in the Eurozone depended on its ability to push through a series of new measures.

With an election in Greece due in April, it probably wouldn’t take too much to see the wheels come off once more, and the air come out of the financial spread betting market rally seen so far this year.

Last weeks UK Q4 GDP numbers while disappointing weren’t entirely unexpected, given how poor some of the recent data had been in Q4 and today spread betting markets will get the first indications as to how the economy is doing in Q1.

This will come with the release of manufacturing PMI data for January with expectations that the sector could eke out an expansion to 50.1, from December’s 49.7.

It’s also an important day for US economic data today as well especially in light of last week’s rather downbeat FOMC press conference and disappointing GDP numbers on Friday, and yesterday’s miss in consumer confidence and Chicago purchasing managers data.

The latest ADP employment report for January is due. All eyes will be on whether the record gain from last month of 325k is adjusted down and whether the January number can sustain the momentum with an expectation of a gain of 185k.

The release of the latest January ISM manufacturing data will also be of interest in light of the downbeat Fed assessment with expectations of an increase to 54.5 from 53.9.

EURUSD

 
Yesterday’s move towards the 1.3050 support area has so far contained the downside in the single currency.

To reopen a downside move, we still need to see a break below 1.3050/60 level to retarget last Wednesday’s lows at 1.2940/50 level which prompted the sharp rebound at the end of last week.

The 1.3245/50 38.2% retracement of the down move from the October highs at 1.4250 to the recent lows at 1.2610, remains the key resistance on the topside.

A break though could well target a deeper move towards 1.3450; but for now the bearish reversal on the candle charts keeps the focus for a move lower.

The key support level remains around the 1.2850/60 area and only below this level reopens a move towards the key 1.2600 level.

GBPUSD

 
In GBP/USD spread betting, the pound had a slightly better day than the euro yesterday as it broke briefly above the 1.5780 level towards 1.5800 before slipping back.

As long as it holds above 1.5720, we could well see 1.5800 give way and target a move towards 1.5920 and slightly above that the 200 day MA at 1.5968, but with negative divergence forming on the four hour charts that seems unlikely.

Back below 1.5720 retargets this weeks low at 1.5640, while below that the 1.5530 area and last weeks low could see some buying interest as well.

EURGBP

 
The failure to overcome the resistance at the 0.8420 cap saw the euro slide back sharply below the trend line support at 0.8340 from the January lows at 0.8220.

The subsequent break below 0.8310 brings the focus back on those lows and the September 2010 lows at 0.8200/05.

These lows remain the key obstacle to further declines towards the 2010 lows at 0.8065.

USDJPY

 
This week’s move below the 76.50 level opens up the risk of a move back towards the all time lows at 75.30. The US dollar needs to get back above the 76.50 level to stabilise in the short term and alleviate the downside pressure.

The 200 day MA at 78.30 remains the key barrier to a US dollar turnaround after last week’s failure at that level.

Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital and it is possible to lose more than your initial investment. Spread betting may not be suitable for all investors. Ensure you understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if and where necessary.

Forex trading news by Michael Hewson, Analyst, CMC Markets.

CMC Markets is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority, register no. 173730.

Any CMC Markets research and charting tools are indicative, they are provided for information purposes, they must not be relied upon as investment advice. CMC Markets provide an execution-only service.

The above content should not be construed as a recommendation or offer to buy or offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument by CMC Markets. The content is not a recommendation. You should seek independent advice as to 1) your suitability to speculate in any related markets 2) your ability to assume the associated risks 3) the tax, legal and accounting consequences of any transaction.

Category Categories: Spread Betting News, Spread Betting on Currencies, Spread Betting on Forex | Tag Tags: | Comments No Comments »

Euro Spread Betting: Portugal Garners Attention as Yields Exceed 17%

Calendar January 31, 2012 | Posted by Robert

Last night saw broad agreement amongst EU nations of the fiscal treaty so favoured by Germany; however the agreement was not universal, with the UK and the Czech Republic refusing to sign up.

The treaty is expected to legally bind EU countries to balance their budgets over time; however it is not clear whether some local parliaments might require a referendum on the issue, with Ireland a likely candidate.

It is also not clear how legally enforceable the pact will be and how much latitude states will have with respect to “exceptional circumstances” in deviating from the agreement.

In any event this is a mere side issue with the continued lack of agreement with respect to a Greek debt deal.

With a new Greek aid package contingent on the current negotiations surrounding the debt restructuring, any agreement was always likely to be tortuous. especially given the fact that Greece’s finances are in an even worse state than originally thought.

It therefore looks like the financial spread betting markets will have to wait a little while longer for any news on the PSI, given that the troika are still in Athens. As with all things Europe, it is better to treat anything EU politicians say with a large dollop of scepticism, with respect to timeframes.

Unfortunately for EU leaders, for all the talk of Greece being a special case it appears that Portugal could well be going the same way. Portuguese bond yields continue to explode higher, with 10 year yields above 17%, and it seems likely that a debt restructuring could well be on the cards here as well, given that the economy is contracting sharply.

In addition to all of that and for all the fine talk of budget responsibility and fiscal compacts, one of the biggest problems in Europe remains unemployment, with youth unemployment exploding in Spain, above 50%, in Greece, 46.6% and Portugal, over 30%.

Today’s Eurozone unemployment figures are therefore not expected to make pretty reading though the worst of it is expected to be disguised by Germany’s record low unemployment rate.

German unemployment for January is expected to drop by 5k, while the unemployment rate is expected to stay at a historically low 6.8%.

Italian unemployment for December, on the other hand is expected to increase from 8.6% to 8.7% while European unemployment is expected to rise to 10.4%.

Over the other side of the Atlantic an air of cautious optimism remains despite last week’s disappointing Q4 GDP number, and the Fed’s downbeat assessment of the US economy.

US consumer confidence for January is expected to improve from 64.5 in December to 68, while the Chicago Purchasing Manager index is expected to rise from 62.2 in December to 63.0.

EURUSD

 
Yesterday’s failure to breach the 1.3245/50 38.2% retracement of the down move from the October highs at 1.4250 to the recent lows at 1.2610, keeps the focus on the downside.

A break though could well target a deeper move towards 1.3450; however a potential bearish reversal on the candle charts keeps the focus for a move lower.

To reopen a downside move, we still need to see a break below 1.3060 to retarget last Wednesday’s lows at 1.2940/50 level which prompted the sharp rebound at the end of last week.

The key support level remains around the 1.2850/60 area and only below this level reopens a move towards the key 1.2600 level which represents the 76.4% retracement of the up move from the 2010 lows at 1.1880 to last years highs at 1.4940. This support level also coincides with the August 2010 lows at 1.2590.

GBPUSD

 
Yesterday saw the pound post its first negative day in the past 11 and in the process post a possible potential reversal, after failing at 1.5740. While below the December highs at 1.5770/80, the bias remains towards the downside and the longer term downtrend intact.

Only a move above 1.5780 targets a move towards 1.5920 and slightly above that the 200 day MA 1.5968.

The 1.5550 area looks like to continue to act as support on any move back lower, which if broken, could see a move back to 1.5360.

EURGBP

 
In EUR/GBP spread betting, the single currency continues to run into a wall around the 0.8420 cap.

While 0.8420 caps the focus remains for further euro losses back towards the September 2010 lows at 0.8200/05, which remain the key obstacle to further declines towards the 2010 lows at 0.8065. There is also trend line support at 0.8320 from the 0.8220 lows.

A break of 0.8420 could well trigger a sharp move towards 0.8500.

USDJPY

 
Yesterday’s move below the 76.50 level opens up the risk of a move back towards the all time lows at 75.30.

This move could now open the risk of possible further intervention by the Bank of Japan as the yen continues to rise.

The 200 day MA at 78.30 remains the key barrier to a US dollar turnaround after last week’s failure at that level

Equity market calls

 
FTSE100 is expected to open 23 points higher at 5,694.

DAX is expected to open 35 points higher at 6,479.

CAC 40 is expected to open 21 points higher at 3,287.

FTSEMib is expected to open 81 points higher at 15,834.

Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital and it is possible to lose more than your initial investment. Spread betting may not be suitable for all investors. Ensure you understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if and where necessary.

Forex trading news by Michael Hewson, Analyst, CMC Markets.

CMC Markets is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority, register no. 173730.

Any CMC Markets research and charting tools are indicative, they are provided for information purposes, they must not be relied upon as investment advice. CMC Markets provide an execution-only service.

The above content should not be construed as a recommendation or offer to buy or offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument by CMC Markets. The content is not a recommendation. You should seek independent advice as to 1) your suitability to speculate in any related markets 2) your ability to assume the associated risks 3) the tax, legal and accounting consequences of any transaction.

Category Categories: Financial Markets, Spread Betting News, Spread Betting on Currencies, Spread Betting on Forex, Spread Betting on Indices | Tag Tags: | Comments No Comments »

Forex Spread Betting Markets Remain Resilient Despite Several European Downgrades

Calendar January 30, 2012 | Posted by Robert

Today’s EU summit is likely to be a rather testy affair after reports on Friday that Berlin wanted more stringent EU oversight of Greece’s finances in return for a new bailout. This comes as concerns grow over the country’s ability to deliver on its financial obligations.

Items on the agenda to be discussed include the fiscal compact as well as the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and the (FTT) Financial Transaction tax.

In any case all of these items remain secondary to the main problem exercising investor’s attention at the moment, which is the problem of a new bailout for Greece, as well as the agreement on the (PSI) private sector involvement.

New bailout talks look set to continue with speculation that any agreement will insist on new austerity measures to bridge a new funding gap, while Friday’s German additional EU oversight demands have not gone down well in Athens, prompting widespread anger.

Greek Finance Minister Venizelos rejected any notion of reduced Greek fiscal oversight outright, and there is deep unease that the suggestion was made at all. They underline German, as well as IMF concern about the Greek government’s ability to implement the measures being asked of them now, and in the future.

Talks with Greece’s private creditors are said to be progressing an agreement apparently reached with respect to a debt restructuring to the tune of a 70% haircut. However, this has been the line for the past two weeks and there still appears to be no official confirmation of the fact.

It would also appear that due to further fiscal deterioration in Greece’s finances, a funding gap has opened up since the second bailout was agreed in October which needs agreement on further measures to close it.

The argument revolves around who fills this gap. Will it be Greece, with further austerity measures, or asset sales, or the ECB in giving up its profits from Greek bond purchases?

Until this issue is resolved and Athens acquiesces to further troika demands in return for a second bailout, any prospective PSI agreement announcement could well be delayed.

The action by ratings agency Fitch in finally delivering on its long awaited threat to downgrade Italy, Spain and three other European countries with a negative outlook, barely caused a ripple in forex spread betting markets on Friday. This was most likely due to the large amount of commentary prior to the event.

In any event unlike Standard and Poor’s, the agency reaffirmed France’s triple “A” rating as well as all the other triple “A” country ratings in Europe.

Given that Italy’s bond yields have dropped sharply in the past few days in the wake of some successful short term auctions, today’s 5 and 10 year auctions will be a key test of investor demand for the country’s longer term paper. Especially in view of Friday’s downgrade by Fitch. The auctions are for up to €4bn of 2017 and €2bn of 2022 paper.

EURUSD

 
The single currency has continued its recent rally holding above the 1.3060 support as it closes in on the 1.3250 38.2% retracement of the down move from the October highs at 1.4250 to the recent lows at 1.2610.

A break here could well target a deeper move towards 1.3450.

To reopen a downside move we would need to see a break below 1.3060 to retarget last Wednesday’s lows at 1.2940/50 level which prompted the sharp rebound at the end of last week.

The key support level remains around the 1.2850/60 area and only below this level reopens a move towards the key 1.2600 level which represents the 76.4% retracement of the up move from the 2010 lows at 1.1880 to last years highs at 1.4940. This support level also coincides with the August 2010 lows at 1.2590.

GBPUSD

 
Ten successive up days for the GBP/USD has seen the pound push close to but not as yet exceed the December highs at 1.5770, just about keeping the bias to the downside and the longer term downtrend intact.

Only a move above 1.5780 targets a move towards 1.5920 and slightly above that the 200 day MA 1.5968.

The 1.5550 area looks like to continue to act as support on any move back lower, which if broken, could see a move back to 1.5360.

EURGBP

 
The single currency is homing in on the resistance around the 0.8420 cap.

While 0.8420 caps the focus remains for further euro losses back towards the September 2010 lows at 0.8200/05, which remain the key obstacle to further declines towards the 2010 lows at 0.8065. A break of 0.8420 could well trigger a sharp move towards 0.8500.

USDJPY

 
Last weeks failure to get above the 200 day MA at 78.30 has seen the US dollar drop sharply once again raising concerns about the strong yen, and possible central bank intervention from the Bank of Japan.

It needs a move beyond these two resistance levels to target a move towards the October 2011 highs at 79.55. The lows this month and in November at 76.50 remain the key support

Only a move and close below 76.50 opens up the all-time lows at 75.30.

Equity market calls

 
FTSE 100 is expected to open 16 points lower at 5,717.

DAX is expected to open at 24 points lower 6,488.

CAC40 is expected to open 20 points lower at 3,299.

FTSEMib is expected to open 60 points lower at 15,887.

Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital and it is possible to lose more than your initial investment. Spread betting may not be suitable for all investors. Ensure you understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if and where necessary.

Forex trading news by Michael Hewson, Analyst, CMC Markets.

CMC Markets is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority, register no. 173730.

Any CMC Markets research and charting tools are indicative, they are provided for information purposes, they must not be relied upon as investment advice. CMC Markets provide an execution-only service.

The above content should not be construed as a recommendation or offer to buy or offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument by CMC Markets. The content is not a recommendation. You should seek independent advice as to 1) your suitability to speculate in any related markets 2) your ability to assume the associated risks 3) the tax, legal and accounting consequences of any transaction.

Category Categories: Financial Markets, Spread Betting News, Spread Betting on Currencies, Spread Betting on Forex, Spread Betting on Indices | Tag Tags: | Comments No Comments »

UK Stocks Spread Trading Guide: Renishaw

Calendar January 29, 2012 | Posted by Robert

Where can I Spread Bet on Renishaw?

 

You can place spread bets on Renishaw shares with:

The spread betting companies mentioned above also offer tax free* spread betting on a range of other financial markets such as stock market indices, commodities and forex.

For more information about:

 

Renishaw Trading Example

 

On Friday, the price of the Renishaw Rolling Daily market was 1366.2p – 1373.8p with FinancialSpreads.

As with most large cap equities listed on the leading exchanges, investors can place a spread bet on the Renishaw shares to go up or go down in value. With this Renishaw Rolling Daily market, an investor can speculate on:

a) Renishaw shares to go above 1373.8p, or
b) Renishaw shares to go below 1366.2p.

It should be noted that with the Renishaw market you trade in £X per penny, where a penny is 1p of Renishaw share price movement. For example, if you invested £4 per penny and the Renishaw shares move 5p then that would result in a difference to your profits (or losses) of £20.

 

Renishaw Equities Spread Betting Example

 

As an example, let’s assume you see the real time price on a spread trading website and it shows a spread of 1366.2p – 1373.8p. Following your research, you might come to feel that the Renishaw share price will go above 1373.8p. This means:

  • You think the Renishaw shares will increase
  • Therefore, you choose to ‘buy’ the market at 1373.8p and you bet £2 per penny
  • The market rises with the market changing to 1430.8p – 1438.4p
  • With this new price you can choose to take your profit and close your bet. You would do this by selling at 1430.8p
  • Buy price: 1373.8p
  • Profits (or losses) = (Settlement Level – Initial Level) x stake
  • Profits (or losses) = (1430.8p – 1373.8p) x £2 per penny
  • Profits (or losses) = 57.0p x £2 per penny
  • Profits (or losses) = £114.00 profit

 

Investing does not always go to plan. If the trade didn’t work as forecast, and had the Renishaw stock decreased in value, with the market going down to 1308.5p – 1316.1p, then you could choose to settle your position and prevent further losses. In order to do this you would sell at 1308.5p.

  • Initial price you bought the spread bet at: 1373.8p
  • Profits (or losses) = (Settlement Level – Initial Level) x stake
  • Profits (or losses) = (1308.5p – 1373.8p) x £2 per penny
  • Profits (or losses) = -65.3p x £2 per penny
  • Profits (or losses) = -£130.60 loss

 

Note that with a Rolling Daily Financial Spread Bet if you Roll a bet over to the next day you could incur a charge or income for each day that the trade is maintained. For more details read: Rolling Daily Spread Betting Charges.

(Spread trading prices quoted as of 27-Jan-12)

 

Latest Financial Spread Betting Accounts and Offers

 

If you are considering spread trading as a part of your portfolio then for more details on:

 
Important Note: Spread betting is a leveraged investment product, it involves a high degree of risk to your funds and can result in you losing more than your initial stake. Ensure that it fits your investment requirements as it might not be suitable for all types of investor. Before you trade, make sure you are fully aware of the risks. Only speculate with funds that you can afford to lose. Where necessary seek independent financial advice.

* As per current UK and Irish tax law, this may change/differ depending on your own situation.

Category Categories: Financial Markets, Spread Betting on Shares | Tag Tags: | Comments No Comments »

UK Equities Trading Guide: Salamander Energy

Calendar January 28, 2012 | Posted by Robert

Where can I Spread Bet on Salamander Energy?

 

You can place spread bets on Salamander Energy shares with:

The spread betting companies mentioned above also offer tax free* spread betting on a range of other financial markets such as stock market indices, commodities and forex.

For more information about:

 

Salamander Energy Spread Betting Example

 

On Friday, the price of the Salamander Energy Rolling Daily market was 225.0p – 226.4p with firms like Tradefair.

Like most large cap shares listed on the leading stock exchanges, investors can place a spread bet on the Salamander Energy shares to go up or go down in value. With the Salamander Energy Rolling Daily market, you can bet on:

a) Salamander Energy shares to move higher than 226.4p, or
b) Salamander Energy shares to move lower than 225.0p.

It should be noted that with the Salamander Energy market you trade in £X per penny, where a penny is 1p of Salamander Energy share movement. As an example, if you invested £20 per penny and the Salamander Energy stock moves 5p then your profits/losses would change by £100.

 

Salamander Energy Equities Trading Example

 

For example, let’s say you see the live price on an online spread betting website that shows the spread of 225.0p – 226.4p. Following your analysis, you come to think that the Salamander Energy shares is going to move above 226.4p. This implies:

  1. You believe the Salamander Energy share price should go up
  2. As a result, you decide you are going to ‘buy’ the market at 226.4p and you risk £10 per penny
  3. The market rises with the market changing to 237.2p – 238.6p
  4. With this new price you can choose to guarantee a profit and settle your bet. You would do this by selling at 237.2p
  5. Buy price: 226.4p
  6. P&L = (Final Level – Initial Level) x stake
  7. P&L = (237.2p – 226.4p) x £10 per penny
  8. P&L = 10.8p x £10 per penny
  9. P&L = £108.00 profit

 

Spread betting does not always go to plan. If the trade did not work as predicted, and had the Salamander Energy stock decreased in price, with the market decreasing to 217.3p – 218.7p, then you can decide to close your position and cut your losses by selling at 217.3p.

  1. Initial buy price = 226.4p
  2. P&L = (Final Level – Initial Level) x stake
  3. P&L = (217.3p – 226.4p) x £10 per penny
  4. P&L = -9.1p x £10 per penny
  5. P&L = -£91.00 loss

 

Please note that when Rolling a bet over to the subsequent day you could incur a charge or income for every day that the trade is still open. Further information can be found here: Rolling Daily Spread Betting Charges.

(Market quoted: 27-Jan-12)

 

Latest Financial Spread Betting Accounts and Offers

 

If you are considering spread trading as a part of your portfolio then for more details on:

 
Important Note: Spread betting is a leveraged investment product, it involves a high degree of risk to your funds and can result in you losing more than your initial stake. Ensure that it fits your investment requirements as it might not be suitable for all types of investor. Before you trade, make sure you are fully aware of the risks. Only speculate with funds that you can afford to lose. Where necessary seek independent financial advice.

* As per current UK and Irish tax law, this may change/differ depending on your own situation.

Category Categories: Financial Markets, Spread Betting on Shares | Tag Tags: | Comments No Comments »

Improved Greek Negotiations Help Euro Spread Betting Market to Rebound

Calendar January 27, 2012 | Posted by Robert

The single currency rebounded yesterday on unconfirmed talk that private sector banks had tabled an improved offer on the Greek PSI.

Talks are set to continue today with speculation that they had given ground on the coupon to 3.75%, but there has been no confirmation of this so far.

The offer is also above the 3.5% demanded by the Greek government and the EU, which is needed to get the debt to GDP ratio down to a more sustainable level by 2020.

Speculation has continued about the ECB’s holdings with some discussion about how to deal with any forced losses on the €40bn worth of bonds held. The prevailing view is that this would be fiercely resisted, but it is hard to see how it could be avoided given the ECB is not a preferred creditor.

With all the focus on Greece, attention has also started to shift to Portugal whose own bond yields are continuing to rise sharply with 10 year yields pushing on towards 15%, as fears rise that it to could well need a second bailout.

Italy on the other hand has seen some relief in its borrowing costs as 10 year bond yields slid down towards 6% yesterday. Shorter term borrowing costs have also fallen back sharply as Italy managed to get €4.5bn of 2014 bonds away at significantly reduced yields, while today’s auction of €8bn of 6 month bills and €3bn of 11 month bills, should see similar falls in yields.

The only other data of note today is the publication of US Q4 GDP which is of particular importance in light of the Fed’s surprising decision to extend its low rate outlook on Wednesday.

Wednesday’s decision was all the more surprising given that the expectation for today’s GDP numbers is for a strong recovery from Q3’s 1.8% to a rise of 3%.

Given that the Federal Reserve also downgraded their growth forecasts for 2012 to between 2.2% and 2.7%, it does raise the concern that financial spread betting markets expectations could be on the high side.

On the flip side, yesterday’s better than expected durable goods orders for December and the upward revision to the November figure have encouraged expectations of a good number, around that 3% mark.

A disappointing number would certainly increase the possibility of a further round of asset purchases sooner, rather than later.

Even if the number does come in as expected, US GDP does have a habit of getting revised lower. Q3’s numbers were a case in point, as they also initially came in high at 2.5% before being subsequently revised downwards to 1.8%, largely as a result of weak retail spending and the worry is that Q4 could go the same way.

EURUSD

 
In EUR/USD spread betting, yesterday’s move to 1.3180 stopped well short of the 1.3250 38.2% retracement of the down move from the 1.4250/1.2610 down move. There is still potential to hit this level but only if we stay above the 1.3060 level.

A break below 1.3060 has the potential to open up a move back towards the 1.2940/50 level which prompted the sharp rebound on Wednesday.

The key support level remains around the 1.2850/60 area and only below this level reopens a move towards the key 1.2600 level which represents the 76.4% retracement of the up move from the 2010 lows at 1.1880 to last years highs at 1.4940. This support level also coincides with the August 2010 lows at 1.2590.

GBPUSD

 
The pound completed nine successive up days in a row yesterday which suggests it could well be time for a down day.

The failure to take out the December highs at 1.5770, running out of steam at 1.5730, keeps the bias to the downside and the longer term downtrend intact. Only a move above 1.5780 targets a move towards 1.5920.

The 1.5500 area should continue to act as support on any move back lower, which if broken, could see a move back to 1.5360.

EURGBP

 
The single currency continues to find sellers just below the 0.8400 level while there is larger resistance just above that at 0.8420.

While 0.8420 caps the focus remains for further euro losses back towards the September 2010 lows at 0.8200/05, which remain the key obstacle to further declines towards the 2010 lows at 0.8065.

A break of 0.8420 could well trigger a sharp move towards 0.8500.

USDJPY

 
After threatening to rally above 78.30 resistance and the 200 day MA earlier this week the US dollar has fallen back, once again raising concerns about the strong yen, and possible central bank intervention from the BoJ.

It needs a move beyond these two resistance levels to target a move towards the October 2011 highs at 79.55. The lows this month and in November at 76.50 remain the key support

Only a move and close below 76.50 opens up the all-time lows at 75.30.

Equity market calls

 
FTSE100 is expected to open 32 points lower at 5,763.

DAX is expected to open 35 points lower at 6,505.

CAC 40 is expected to open 20 points lower at 3,343.

FTSEMib is expected to open 70 points lower at 16,041.

Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital and it is possible to lose more than your initial investment. Spread betting may not be suitable for all investors. Ensure you understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if and where necessary.

Forex trading news by Michael Hewson, Analyst, CMC Markets.

CMC Markets is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority, register no. 173730.

Any CMC Markets research and charting tools are indicative, they are provided for information purposes, they must not be relied upon as investment advice. CMC Markets provide an execution-only service.

The above content should not be construed as a recommendation or offer to buy or offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument by CMC Markets. The content is not a recommendation. You should seek independent advice as to 1) your suitability to speculate in any related markets 2) your ability to assume the associated risks 3) the tax, legal and accounting consequences of any transaction.

Category Categories: Financial Markets, Spread Betting News, Spread Betting on Currencies, Spread Betting on Forex, Spread Betting on Indices | Tag Tags: | Comments No Comments »

Financial Spread Betting: Euro Continues to Rally as Greek Issue Remains Unresolved

Calendar January 26, 2012 | Posted by Robert

Concerns about Greece continue to nag away at investors even as the single currency continues its recent rebound to its highest levels this month. However, this is a double edged sword given that a higher euro is the last thing the weaker EU economies need, or want for that matter.

Today sees representatives of the IIF return to Athens on behalf of the private sector bondholders to try and close the gap between them and the Greek government in respect to the “voluntary restructuring”.

Given comments by BNP Paribas chairman Prot yesterday evening that the banks had made their maximum offer it is hard to see what agreement can be reached unless Greece and the EU relent on the 3.5% coupon.

Given the deadlock in the PSI a new element has come in to play, namely the Greek bond holdings of the ECB.

This comes after IMF head Christine Lagarde lobbed a hand grenade into the debate by suggesting that the ECB may have to take a haircut on its €40bn worth of holdings, to get Greek debt down to a sustainable level.

While this is a natural development given that the ECB is not a preferred creditor, it hasn’t gone down too well at the bank, or in Germany, for that matter.

Italy will also be in focus today as it looks to sell up to €5bn worth of 2014 bonds, which given the recent drop in yields shouldn’t be too much of a problem.

In the UK, concerns about the economy were magnified by yesterday’s disappointing Q4 GDP numbers which showed a contraction of 0.2%.

Despite this some of yesterday’s CBI data did show some signs of recovery and it is to be hoped that today’s reported sales numbers for January show similar improvement.

Unfortunately the expectations aren’t that high with expectations of a reading of -6, down from December’s reading of 9.

This worse than expected economic performance has raised fears that the UK economy is heading for its first double dip recession since 1975, with fears that unemployment could well continue to rise.

Yesterday’s Fed meeting turned out to be slightly more dovish than the financial spread betting markets had anticipated with policymakers pushing the low rate policy beyond market expectations, from mid 2013 into the end of 2014.

This was a surprise given how positive some of the more recent economic data has been and suggests that the Fed is a little concerned at the durability of the US recovery.

What was clear was that policymakers remain divided on when to raise rates with one dissenter, Richmond Fed Lacker who did not want a specific time frame inserted into the statement.

The Fed also set its long term inflation goal at 2%, as measured by in the price index for personal consumption expenditures or PCE.

The downgrading of its growth forecast for 2012 to between 2.2% and 2.7% has also raised the possibility of a further round of asset purchases as early as the second quarter of this year.

Economic data out today includes December durable goods orders which are expected to show a 2% rise, slightly down from November’s 3.7% rise.

There is a suggestion that this 2% figure could be on the low side given Boeing’s results yesterday which showed a sharp pick-up in aircraft orders in December.

Weekly jobless claims are expected to rise slightly to 370k after last weeks surprise drop to 352k.

EURUSD

 
Even though we saw a sharp drop to 1.2930 yesterday the subsequent rally above this month’s highs at 1.3075/80 keeps the likelihood of a deeper move to 1.3250 very much on the cards.

This level is also 38.2% retracement of the down move from the 1.4250/1.2610 down move.

We need to see a move back below the 1.2850/60 support area to reopen a move towards the key 1.2600 level which represents the 76.4% retracement of the up move from the 2010 lows at 1.1880 to last years highs at 1.4940.

This support level also coincides with the August 2010 lows at 1.2590.

GBPUSD

 
The pound has continued its more buoyant tone yesterday despite a brief dip to 1.5530. It has as yet failed to get above the trend line resistance at 1.5670 from the August highs at 1.6620 which would then target the December highs around the 1.5770 area.

The 1.5500 area should continue to act as support on any move back lower, which if broken, could see a move back to 1.5360.

The 1.5270 support area remains a key level and obstacle to further sterling declines towards the 1.5190 level, which remains a key support area given that it is 61.8% retracement of the 1.4230/1.6745 up move.

There is also support at 1.5125, the July 2010 lows, a break of which targets 1.4980.

EURGBP

 
Despite a number of attempts to get above the 0.8400 level the single currency has found a number of buyers on the dips towards the 0.8300/10 level.

While 0.8420 caps the focus remains for further euro losses back towards the September 2010 lows at 0.8200/05, which remain the key obstacle to further declines towards the 2010 lows at 0.8065. A break of 0.8420 could well trigger a sharp move towards 0.8500.

USDJPY

 
In USD/JPY spread betting, the failure to get above the 78.30 December highs and 200 day MA yesterday has seen the US dollar pull back sharply.

A move beyond these two resistance levels could well target a move towards the October 2011 highs at 79.55.

The key support remains around this month’s and the November lows at 76.50. Only a move and close below 76.50 opens up the all-time lows at 75.30.

Equity market calls

 
FTSE 100 is expected to open 24 points higher at 5,747.

DAX is expected to open 30 points higher at 6,452.

CAC40 is expected to open 20 points higher at 3,332.

FTSEMib is expected to open 114 points higher at 15,954.

Spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital and it is possible to lose more than your initial investment. Spread betting may not be suitable for all investors. Ensure you understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if and where necessary.

Forex trading news by Michael Hewson, Analyst, CMC Markets.

CMC Markets is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority, register no. 173730.

Any CMC Markets research and charting tools are indicative, they are provided for information purposes, they must not be relied upon as investment advice. CMC Markets provide an execution-only service.

The above content should not be construed as a recommendation or offer to buy or offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument by CMC Markets. The content is not a recommendation. You should seek independent advice as to 1) your suitability to speculate in any related markets 2) your ability to assume the associated risks 3) the tax, legal and accounting consequences of any transaction.

Category Categories: Financial Markets, Spread Betting News, Spread Betting on Currencies, Spread Betting on Forex, Spread Betting on Indices | Tag Tags: | Comments No Comments »