Free Futures Trading News
|
|
|
The Regular Update from The Mole and paddypowertrader.
The Financial Markets - 11 June 09
Déjà vu as there was a late rally yesterday evening spurred by the Fed’s Beige book which noted that 5 of the 12 districts saw “that the downward trend is showing signs of moderating”.
The market had earlier dipped on news of a very stodgy 10 year US Treasury Bond Auction (where investors demanded 3.99%, the highest yield since August 2008 to buy the government securities) and worries about inflation and higher gasoline pump prices.
Note also that figures yesterday showed new mortgage applications at a four month low. Hardly surprising given a 30 year mortgage now costs 5.57% from 4.61% in March.
Today’s Market Moving Stories:
- US foreclosures are still rising. The latest RealtyTrac data has shown that one in every 398 households in the US is in some state of foreclosure. May 2009 foreclosures are up 18% yoy although a slight improvement from April. The three month run rate is now more than 300k per month. With unemployment still not falling (9.4% in May in the US) coupled with falling house prices (down 19% yoy as at end-March 09) the trend is expected to continue with total foreclosure filings for the first half of 2009 possibly reaching 1.8m. This will continue to show up in banks’ credit losses for the foreseeable future, albeit near-term, the US banks have been much more proactive in pre-provisioning, with average coverage levels north of 100% for now, while the major European bank average is around the 55-60% mark.
- Overnight we got news of Chinese fixed investment for May. Investment continued to accelerate, with annual growth reaching almost 33%, up from a low of 24% last year. The trade balance for May showed a 4% bounce in exports, although the trend in sales remains on a downward drift (sales are down a worse-than-expected 26% from a year ago).
- For Asian equities key psychological barriers could keep equity markets capped for a while, with the Nikkei nearing 10,000 and the HSI closing in on 20,000. Whether the market conquers these markers ultimately depends on continued liquidity.
- European stocks in the news are pharma giant Glaxo whose shares got a boost after they were rated “attractive” at Morgan Stanley while Electrolux is also up after a buy recommendation from Goldman Sachs.
- More gloomy tidings from the troubled airline sector. Both Iberia and Lufthansa have released May passenger data which echoes the negative trends from other Flags. Iberia’s volume fell 11%, with domestic down 9.8% and Europe -10.3%. Lufthansa traffic in Europe declined 3.1% to 4.8m (including Swiss). It has been a tough start for summer trading across the entire industry.
- Allied Irish Bank today confirmed that it has initiated an exchange (buyback) of its subordinate bonds, following the Bank of Ireland initiative. In principle, bond holders will have the opportunity to swap current AIB bonds for that of a specified series of new notes. Up to €2.65 billion in bonds are being bid for by AIB as part of the exchange. The pricing of the exchange will take place on June 22 2009. AIB could benefit to the tune of €700m - €800m which would provide a 10% boost to existing Core Equity Tier 1 capital of €7.7 billion.
- Élan CEO Kelly Martin gave a little more colour last night on the timeline for the company’s long running and much commented upon strategic review. Élan is in the “last phase” of assessment, after initially receiving a lot of interest when the review process was begun in January. He reiterated the key goals of the review are to access more capital and a global commercial infrastructure, and to minimise dilution to current shareholders. Separately, he also remains very bullish on Tysabri prospects and sees potential for 100,000 patients on this drug within a 3-5 year timeframe.
Market Takes Positives From Downbeat Beige Book
The Fed’s Beige book released last night noted improved economic expectations in several districts. Indeed five districts noted that the downward trend shows moderating signs. Eight districts reported home upticks in sales (however most of these upticks in housing sales upticks were concentrated in the lower-priced end of the market). The good news more or less stopped there. Overall lending activity remained stable to weak. Credit conditions were judged to be on the whole stringent or even tightened further. Financing for new commercial properties was harder to get. And the residential real estate market was still judged to remain weak. Labour market conditions are still judged weak, with wages flat or falling. No one at the Fed believes there will be much inflation till that changes. Moreover prices at all stages of production are flat or falling. Demand for non-financial services was judged down again, retail spending is still seen as soft and manufacturing activity declined or remained low.
So in sum, no substantial rise in economic activity is seen through year-end. Hard to see then where the market is getting its optimism from. Richmond’s Fed governor Lacker said there’s “no single bullet” to end the recession. Lacker is still talking as if there is and will be a recession, even if the market has decided otherwise.
FT Blowing Swedish Loan Way Out Of Proportion
There’s a misguided headline in the FT saying that ECB has lent the Swedish Central Bank €3bn, as if without this, Sweden would implode. Tosh! Sweden drew down €3bn under a pre-existing swap line (which has been disclosed, well I knew about it and I’m no freakin’ genius) as a matter of precaution given the massive uncertainty position of the Latvian economy. It’s not like the ECB is now wading in outside its remit – the ECB was reactive here, not proactive. Meanwhile on Swedish banks, the stress test results were released yesterday, and while they were reasonably stressful scenarios, GDP Latvia minus 20% for example, the bottom line was that the banks could take SEK150bn of losses and survive. That’s not huge but it does provide a tangible buffer and, just as importantly, some time.
There’s an excellent comment by Mary Stokes in RGE Analysts’ EconoMonitor about the possibility of contagion from the Latvian crisis. She said a Latvian crisis would hit Estonia and Lithuania through trade and financial linkages, and it would affect Sweden through the exposure of Swedish banks in the region. The question is how would it affect the other CEE countries? Direct trade and financial linkages are not very strong. The main effect would be what she calls the “wake-up channel”, a wake-up call to investors to pull out of the region as a whole.
Data Ahead Today
US retail sales for May are released at 13:30. Activity should rise by 0.6%, helped by higher car and gas sales. Excluding the latter, sales should be up 0.2%. I continue to expect real consumer spending to decline in Q2 after posting a surprising 1.5% annualised advance in Q1.
| Advert:
Paddypowertrader
Spread Betting on FX, Shares, Indices, Crude Oil, Gold and more details.
|
The above comments do not constitute investment advice and neither paddypowertrader nor SpreadBets.org.uk accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of them.
"Free Futures Trading News" last update by The Mole, 11-Jun-2009
Warning: Financial spread betting carries a high level of risk. You can lose more than your initial investment or stake. Financial spread betting may not be suitable for all investors. Only trade with money that you can afford to lose. Make sure you fully understand the risk involved. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
Similar articles:
Spread Betting Markets - last update: 14-Jan-2010
The latest look at the state of the financial markets from our man on the inside, our mole heads a trading desk that regularly trades over €100m a day >> Spread Betting Markets.
Financial Betting Markets - last update: 07-Jan-2010
Financial Betting Markets >> More details from The Mole, our man on the inside who heads up a trading desk at a well-known Dublin institution >> Financial Betting Markets.
European Market Spread Betting News - last update: 17-Dec-2009
S&P cut the Greek sovereign rating to BBB+ and kept Greece on ratings watch negative. The FT didn't help the Greek case, covering Greece in a full page article detailing €7bn in unpaid health-care bills to the >> European Market Spread Betting News.
UK Spread Betting Update - last update: 10-Dec-2009
Today, the European morning has seen stocks back in the black. RBS has rebounded over 5% on news of assets sales in Far East and India to HSBC which dragged up Barclays by their >> UK Spread Betting Update.
Financial Spread Betting News - last update: 04-Dec-2009
Markets in Europe and the US opened positively, buoyed by the BoA's TARP repayment and a better than expected US initial jobless claims report. But those gains were erased after a disappointing >> Financial Spread Betting News.
Gold Spread Betting Update - last update: 26-Nov-2009
Gold advanced to a record for the third time this week after Sri Lanka's Central Bank purchasing bullion and the Dollar extending its decline, spurring investors to find an alternative. Sri Lanka bought >> Gold Spread Betting Update.
Crude Oil Spreads Report - last update: 19-Nov-2009
Crude oil traded near $80 a barrel in New York after rising yesterday, as a government report showed US crude and fuel supplies dropped along with refinery production and imports. Oil reached a one-week high of >> Crude Oil Spreads Report.
Index Spread Betting News - last update: 12-Nov-2009
The Dow Jones has retraced 50% of its bear 2007/2009 move. The best summary of what is happening came from Charles Diebel at Nomura: ''the current obsession in markets is that >> Index Spread Betting News.
Equities Spread Trading - last update: 05-Nov-2009
In brief, the insurance sector is under some selling pressure after both Zurich Financial and Munich Re missed analysts estimates, as did copper producer Vedanta Resources. Miners in general were weaker as copper, lead and >> Equities Spread Trading.
US Index Spread Betting - last update: 29-Oct-2009
Both the S&P and the Nasdaq fell for the fourth straight day amid weaker than anticipated new home sales of -3.6%. The Dow Jones US home construction index fell 5.5%, its worst >> US Index Spread Betting.
Shares Spreads Report - last update: 22-Oct-2009
Lloyds is now likely to get permission to exit APS and that would presupposes £26bn capital raise. Mining giant Anglo American announced plans to further streamline its business by selling non-core assets with an aggregate of 11% of the group’s >> Shares Spreads Report.
Forex Spread Betting - last update: 16-Oct-2009
In forex news, a Japanese currency strategist forecasts the demise of the Dollar. The chief currency strategist of Sumitomo Mitsui Banking, Daisuke Uno, said the Dollar would drop to 50 Yen and lose its role as the world's reserve currency. This is the gutsiest forecast I've yet >> Forex Spread Betting.
Asian Financial Spread Trading News - last update: 01-Oct-2009
The Dow Jones logged its best single quarter performance in 11 years with Caterpillar, American Express and General Electric the top three performers. I can't emphasise enough that the >> Asian Financial Spread Trading News.
Financial Spread Betting Report - last update: 24-Sep-2009
Japan's benchmark Nikkei index jumped 1.7 percent after a three-day holiday break playing catch up, but the rise reflected gains made in the rest of the region at the start of the week. A 0.8% slide in the Dow Jones on Wednesday, however, weighed on the rest of >> Financial Spread Betting Report.
Equity Spread Betting News - last update: 17-Sep-2009
The September bears are in rehab as the Pamplona Bull Run continued apace on a hump day. Equities punched higher as investors continue to put cash back to work buoyed >> Equity Spread Betting News.
Global Spread Trading News - last update: 10-Sep-2009
Bourses in Europe were up over 1% yesterday, while the US was up just a little less as Goldman Sach's recommended a punt on industrial companies. Equity markets continue to >> Global Spread Trading News.
US Spread Betting Update - last update: 02-Sep-2009
US stocks have opened soft today. Region banks and financial names like AIG, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were again struggling, with the latter two on a report that the Mortgage Bankers Association proposed a new framework for the government’s role in the secondary mortgage market. US datawise we’ve had a >> US Spread Betting Update.
Asian Financial Spread Trading News - last update: 27-Aug-2009
Recent volatility in Chinese shares has been keeping investors guessing. The Shanghai composite index is down 14% so far in August, on track for the biggest monthly decline since the darkest month of the financial crisis in >> Asian Financial Spread Trading News.
US Market News - last update: 20-Aug-2009
The market seems to be treating the slump in Chinese equities as a healthy correction which is almost officially sanctioned, rather than symptomatic of something more sinister afoot. The S&P 500 was back in the black by yesterday afternoon, led by a rally in energy stocks after an unexpected >> US Market News.
US and UK Trading - last update: 13-Aug-2009
Whilst equity markets closed off their highs for the session the S&P 500 still managed a broad-based gain of 1.2%, with the price action reinforced by some more upbeat commentary in the insurance sector and better-than-expected earnings at >> US and UK Trading.
Asian Markets Report - last update: 06-Aug-2009
US equities opened weaker yesterday after a softer session in Asia and early dataflow failed to quite live up to expectations. But a good portion of those losses were gradually pared as reports emerged of further upgrades to analyst forecasts of US economic growth to leave the S&P 500 down just >> Asian Markets Report.
World Equity Spread Trading - last update: 29-Jul-2009
U.S. health insurance stocks had a good day because it appears that the health care reform package working its way through Congress will not include a government-run health insurance option. To the downside were oil producers, after BP's profit plunged by >> World Equity Spread Trading.
US Market Trading News - last update: 21-Jul-2009
Equities are still on a roll with the S&P hitting an 8 month high, rising 1.1% yesterday. Caterpillar, Disney and Alcoa led the Dow Jones up while CIT Group soared 70% on its 11th hour (temporary) expensive reprieve from bankruptcy. Meanwhile way out West, California lawmakers and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger said they've >> US Market Trading News.
Stocks Soar plus Crude Oil, Gas and Gold Positive - last update: 16-Jul-2009
Stocks soared at the off and stayed bid all day, as shorts were hastily covered in the wake of Intel's upside surprise. With risk appetite back, model-based accounts reportedly hungrily added to risk positive positions across the board, Crude Oil / Gas / Gold / Baltic Dry Freight index are all up >> Stocks Soar plus Crude Oil, Gas and Gold Positive.
Markets Close Below the Moving Average - last update: 10-Jul-2009
The S+P 500 closed below the 200-day Moving Average (MA). The Nasdaq closed below the 50-day MA for the first time since March 16th. Oil Futures closed below the 50-day MA. The VIX closed above the >> Markets Close Below the Moving Average.
Spread Betting Commodities, Dow Jones and S+P 500 - last update: 02-Jul-2009
Note that the technical types are pointing to a potential head and shoulders topping pattern on the S+P 500 and stress that a close below 880 would complete this and pave the way for a move to >> Spread Betting Commodities, Dow Jones and S+P 500.
World Markets and Spread Bets - last update: 25-Jun-2009
Not much to report from the trenches where traders were a tad bemused by the more confident but still diligent Fed FoMC statement. Tech stocks continued to benefit, Asia's technology shares were lifted by gains in the Nasdaq 100 the previous day after >> World Markets and Spread Bets .
Oil Technicals - last update: 18-Jun-2009
The Crude Oil charts suggest that the recent gains in oil may be difficult to sustain. For those of you fully signed up to the China reflation trade, look away now. It is not to say that the >> Oil Technicals.
Free Futures Trading News - last update: 11-Jun-2009
For Asian equities key psychological barriers could keep equity markets capped for a while, with the Nikkei nearing 10,000 and the HSI closing in on 20,000. Whether the market conquers these markers >> Free Futures Trading News.
Has EUR/USD Traded Too Far? - last update: 03-Jun-2009
So the adage in markets regarding momentum is typically *don’t stand in front of a moving train*, but the pace of the shift in the market's attitude towards the USD begs the questions a) who is driving the train and b) are there many >> Has EUR/USD Traded Too Far?.
The End of Recession End - last update: 27-May-2009
We are not yet at the bottom of the US and the global recession. The contraction is still occurring and the recession is going to be over more toward the end of the year rather than in the middle of the year. There is still too much optimism that a recovery >> The End of Recession End.
Bear Market Rally - last update: 20-May-2009
The bulls enjoyed and the bears endured a massive 37% rally in the S+P 500 from the March 9th lows to the May 8th highs. Both in terms of duration and magnitude, this proved to be the most intense rally during >> Bear Market Rally.
The German Bad Bank Plan - last update: 29-Apr-2009
The German Finance Ministry estimates toxic assets worth €300bn and the important question now is who will pay for it? The central government >> The German Bad Bank Plan.
What Caused the Credit Crisis and Recession? - last update: 22-Apr-2009
The IMF has reminded us that it is a credit crisis caused by $2.7 trillion in write-downs of US-originated assets. This has led to a massive deleveraging process that is only about a third of the way through. In addition, the retrenchment from foreign markets is now outpacing the overall >> What Caused the Credit Crisis and Recession?.
Gold at $2000 - last update: 15-Apr-2009
Well first thing to note is that the precious commodity is trading below $1,000 this morning, at $890, so $2,000 is a long way off. But a big move is possible because >> Gold at $2000.
Stocks Spread Trading News - last update: 08-Apr-2009
Stocks fell for the second straight day. The market opened heavy and traded like that all day. There was no >> Stocks Spread Trading News.
Financial Spread Trading News and Views - last update: 01-Apr-2009
Despite poor data from the Chicago PMI, weak consumer confidence and more dire housing data, stocks jumped back. It turns out that the world decided that Monday's sell-off was just a buying opportunity for >> Financial Spread Trading News and Views.
S+P 500 Trading Views - last update: 25-Mar-2009
Some profit taking after the stellar gains (panic buying) on Monday was always on the cards. The surprise to this writer was that the correction was not a tad deeper, with the S+P 500 holding well above the key 800 level; mind you, financials were down 6.5% as the misplaced >> S+P 500 Trading Views.
Trading The Housing Market - last update: 18-Mar-2009
Most of the comment this AM is crediting yesterdays rally in stocks on the unexpected 22.2% jump in US housing starts. But the data was almost certainly inflated by unseasonably warm weather >> Trading The Housing Market.
S+P 500 Trading News - last update: 25-Feb-2009
The latest plunge in US equity markets does not mean that stocks are now cheap. Admittedly, the S&P 500 now trades around 13 times >> S+P 500 Trading News.
Insider Trading News - last update: 18-Feb-2009
Stocks ended on a sour note Friday and down 5% for last week. One wonders where they might have ended if not for the giant stimulus package and the son of TARP? Markets had been fantasising that >> Insider Trading News.
Financial News from the Inside - last update: 16-Feb-2009
Another rollercoaster ride yesterday as stocks slumped back to within spitting distance of the November '08 lows as fears of impending nationalisation came back to haunt the financials. When you get reports of >> Financial News from the Inside.
|
|
|
Free Financial Email: Latest Spread Betting Offers and where to find narrow spreads.
Click here to sign up.
|
|
