Spread Bets Trading Info - August 2008
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Weekly Online Spread Bet Comment, update 25 Aug 08
Part 1 - Trading News - Last Week's Markets
Part 2 - Economic Indicators and Company Results
Part 3 - The Financial Press, what the papers said
Trading News - Last Week's Markets
Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were making all the business headlines again last week, as the market now seems nearly certain that there will be some sort of federal intervention. A government step-in would likely see shareholders lose significantly, so their share prices tumbled over 51% and 37% respectively last week.
Along with high a US Producer Price Index figure (1.2% actual Vs 0.6% expected) indicating further inflation problems to come, equity markets had a nervous week. The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, Wall Street was down 0.4% and the German DAX shed 1.4%. The commodity heavy FTSE managed a positive week, gaining 0.7%, but the banking heavy Irish ISEQ dropped 5.5%.
Equities Spread Bets
There were few earnings reports out last week; to move individual equities. Instead commodity prices and the financial crisis pulled the strings. Commodity and mining stocks in particular had a strong week, with Rio Tinto gaining 11.6%. However financials and banks suffered.
Forex Spread Bets
In the Forex markets the Euro had a strong week, largely due to it having the 'least worst' economic news. EUR / USD rose to $1.4773 and EUR GBP gained 1.3% to finish at £0.798. GBP USD fell 0.64% last week as the UK’s much lower than expected Q2 GDP figure took its toll.
Gold Spread Bets - Crude Oil Spread Bets
Gold had its first positive week in six, sparked by a $20 gain last Tuesday between 16.00 and 17.00. It didn’t look back as it went on to close at $825.6, gaining 4.8% on the week.
Crude Oil also bucked its short downtrend trend, rising 0.9% last week. This small gain masks the hugely volatile 5% price swings of Thursday and Friday.
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Spread Bets - Economic Indicators and Company Results
Week Commencing 25 Aug 08
The US has some major figures released this week with Durable Goods on Wednesday and second quarter GDP Thursday afternoon. While the GDP figure might take more headlines, the Durable Goods figure often makes more of an impact on the markets. The Fed Minutes will be as closely watched as ever.
Irish big hitters CRH, Irish Life and Permanent and Tullow Oil will be reporting this week, along with the UK’s mining heavies such as Rio Tinto, Antofagasta and Kazakhmys.
Monday
Economic Indicators
EU: 09.00 German IFO Business Climate, 12.00 German Government Budget Balance
US: 15.00 Existing Home Sales
Results
n/a
Tuesday
Economic Indicators
EU: 07.15 German GFK Consumer Climate, 07.30 German GDP, 08.30 German Import and Export Prices
US: 12.45 ICSC-UBS Retail Chain Store Sales, 13.55 Redbook Retail Sales Index, 15.00 New Home Sales, 15.00 Consumer Confidence, 19.00 Fed Minutes
Results
UK: Aggreko, UTV, John Wood, Bovis Homes, Cairn Energy, Rio Tinto
IRE: CRH, Kerry, Blackrock International Land
Wednesday
Economic Indicators
UK: 13.00 CBI Sales, Nationwide Housing Prices
EU: 07.45 French Housing Starts, 08.00 Spanish GDP, 08.30 Italian Consumer Confidence
US: 12.00 MBA Purchase Applications, 13.30 Durable Goods Orders. 15.35 Crude Inventories
Results
UK: Antofagasta, Johnston Press, SEGRO, Taylor Nelson Sofres, Taylor Wimpey
IRE: Irish Life and Permanent, Kingspan, Glanbia, Independent News & Media, FBD, Tullow Oil
Thursday
Economic Indicators
EU: 07.00 German Employment, 09.00 German Unemployment, 09.00 Italian Producer Price Index, 09.00 Eurozone Money Supply, 15.00 German Money Supply, 15.00 German CPI
US: 13.30 Initial Jobless Claims, 13.30 GDP, 21.30 Money Supply
Results
UK: Diageo, 888 Holdings, Henderson Group, Kazakhmys
IRE: Aer Lingus
US: Dell, Marvell Technology, Sears
Friday
Economic Indicators
UK: 09.30 External Trade
IRE: Central Bank credit figures
EU: 07.45 French Consumer Confidence, 08.00 Spanish Retail Sales, 08.00 Spanish CPI, 10.00 Italian CPI, 11.00 Eurozone Unemployment, 11.00 Eurozone CPI
US: 13.30 Personal Income and Expenditures, 14.45 Chicago PMI, 15.00 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final
Results
UK: Bradford & Bingley, Dana Petroleum, PartyGaming, Salamander Energy
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The Financial Press, what the papers said:
Last update: 25 Aug 08
The Sunday Telegraph is reporting that the People's Bank of China has acquired a secret stake in Prudential, Britain's second-largest insurer. This move is being seen as part of Beijing's plan to invest its vast pool of reserves in overseas markets.
Leaked court documents that have been released by the Sunday Times have said that Goldman Sachs told the Treasury in February that Taxpayers stand to lose up to £1.28 billion after the nationalization of Northern Rock.
The Sunday Times also has more on Malcolm Walker’s continued interest in Woolworths. It reports that he sees a 'back to basics' approach in the store's product line as being the key to its revival.
Eircom could be back on the market again as the Irish Times has reported that the current owners Babcock and Brown are believed to be sounding out senior financiers on a possible sale.
Oil cartel OPEC is expected to reduce supplies following a sharp fall in crude prices, warns Scotland on Sunday. The cartel, which controls about a third of the world's capacity, will meet in Vienna on September 9th.
According to the Sunday Business Post, more than half of the 16 quoted Irish companies that will announce their first half performance this week will report a fall in earnings.
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"Spread Bets Trading Info - August 2008" written by paddy power trader, last updated 25-Aug-2008
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Royal Bank of Scotland was the latest bank to report smaller sub-prime write-downs than the market expected and AIB pleased investors with an upbeat statement. House builders reacted well to the UK rate cut with rises of 7-9%, but Irish group Abbey saw a fall in first half profits and warned that it might need to review its dividend policy...read.
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Net moves on the week saw the Dax unchanged, FTSE -0.5%, Dow -1.5%, S&P -1.2% and Nikkei -1.8%. Financial firms across the market saw massive falls as US stalwart Freddie Mac warned that it would need to raise capital, possibly by slashing its dividend. In the forex market, the EUR USD cross briefly reached a new high of...read.
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After a strong finish to equity markets on Friday, attention will return to the effects of the credit crunch, with the banks' reluctance to lend to one another causing money rates to continue rising. The European Central Bank has pledged to inject emergency funds into the money markets. Keep an eye on key confidence figures from the main...read.
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The money markets witnessed a return of the liquidity crunch with banks' increasing reluctance to lend to one another pushing up the 3-Month Libor rate to just under 6.4%, the highest since September?s problems. he markets saw FTSE ?0.2%, Dow +1.0%, S&P +0.3%, Dax ?2.6%, Nikkei ?2.8%....read.
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Across markets the falls ranged from a barely changed Dax ?0.5% to the harder hit Asian markets with the Nikkei and Hang Seng falling by 5.5%. The FTSE and S&P fell by around 3.5% with the Dow faring worse at ?4.1%. Financials dominated the news flow with Wachovia declaring a $1.1 billion sub-prime related loss for October alone and Barclays denying further rumours...read.
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Once again the week ended with record highs in oil, gold and EUR/USD as sub-prime jitters returned to take the gloss off the equity markets. The Hong Kong and Indian exchanges reached new highs at the start of the week, but equities finished on a low note with FTSE ?2.0%, Dow ?1.5%, S&P ?1.7% and Dax ?0.3%. The Nikkei held up better at +0.1%....read.
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After a strong finish to equity markets on Friday, attention will return to the effects of the credit crunch, with the banks' reluctance to lend to one another causing money rates to continue rising. The European Central Bank has pledged to inject emergency funds into the money markets, until the end of the year if...read.
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Just a week after record highs in equity markets investors decided to celebrate the anniversary of the stock market crash of 1987 by knocking 360 points off the Dow on Friday. Rising oil prices, some shocking company results and further concerns over a slump in both the US and UK housing markets sent traders...read.
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