Spread Betting 12 Mar 2010
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For today's update see Spread Betting.
The Daily Update from Anthony Grech, Research Analyst, IG Index.
Spread Betting 12 March 2010
The FTSE 100 fluctuated between gains and losses this morning following a tug of war between banks and miners.
Banks were higher on the view that after talks, banking reforms in the United States could be watered down.
'The capital markets are healthier; the economy at least is purported to be on the road to recovery. So I think it has definitely taken some of the urgency out of the equation, and it's also taken some of the emotion out of the equation,' NYSE Euronext CEO Duncan Niederauer told Reuters News yesterday.
In addition, US Senator Christopher Dodd, chairman of the Banking Committee, on Thursday said he would present his own version of a financial reform bill after compromise talks with Republicans stalled.
This news fuelled gains across US banking stocks yesterday and sparked a banking rally in London this morning. Consequently, Barclays shares rose 2.1% to 351p, Lloyds Banking Group climbed 3.2% to 58.37p and Royal Bank of Scotland rallied 4.2% to 42.25p.
HSBC underperformed the sector, however, falling 0.7% to 689.6p following declines in Hong Kong and data theft by a former employee at its Swiss private bank.
China’s stocks dropped the most in a week, as investors feared the government will tighten monetary policy to control inflationary pressures and avert domestic asset bubbles.
'There’s speculation that the reserve ratio or interest rates will be raised over the weekend,' said Zhang Gang of Central China Securities Holdings Co.
'The market is concerned that the government will act after this week’s NPC meeting,' he said, referring to the ongoing annual legislative meetings of the National People's Congress. [1]
The predictable effects of prospective additional policy tightening in China on the country’s demand for commodities also weighed on FTSE-listed miners during the early morning session.
Antofagasta, Anglo American, BHP Billiton and Xstrata were the sector's worst performers, down between 0.14% and 0.70%. Rio Tinto, Eurasian and Lonmin pared earlier losses, meanwhile, as the domestic banking sector rally reignited risk appetite.
By 10:30am (London time) the FTSE 100 was trading up 22.72 points (+0.40%) to 5639.98 while the broader FTSE 250 was 83.64 points (+0.85%) above its previous close at 9938.08.
In today's corporate news, Liberty, the 134-year old luxury department store group, has confirmed that it has received takeover approaches. Whether this will lead to an offer being made remains to be seen.
Upmarket cooker manufacturer Aga Rangemaster Group plc climbed 1.7% to 122p after unveiling a pick-up in second-half sales.
Elsewhere, British Airways rose 2% to 234.9p as investors speculated that strike action at the airline could be avoided. Unions have until March 15 to notify BA of their intentions.
Meanwhile, Burberry Group made the headlines today as well. It transpires that the company is suing US chain TJ Maxx for 'attempting to target its customers by selling 'counterfeit' goods using Burberry’s trademark check pattern.
TJ Maxx has denied that the use of check patterns was an attempt to persuade customers that they were buying Burberry products, however. Burberry's shares fell 0.15% to 684p.
In the absence of any domestic news, investors will be watching out for this afternoon's US retail sales and Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index, due at 1:30pm and 2:55pm (London time) respectively. US business inventory figures will follow at 3pm.
[1] Bloomberg News (12 March 2010)
The above comments do not constitute investment advice and neither IG Index nor SpreadBets.org.uk accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of them.
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Spread Betting 12 March 2010: 6am Update
Overnight, US markets managed to move into positive territory late in the session. This was despite mixed economic reads, a fluctuating US Dollar, and renewed concerns over further possible tightening in China after stronger-than-expected inflation data.
The S&P 500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones Industrial Average were all firmer by 0.4%, with the S&P 500 hitting a 17-month closing high.
In Asia, regional markets are mixed this Friday after reasonable, yet uninspiring leads from the US and amidst fresh concerns over further tightening of fiscal policy in China.
At around 05:00, the Nikkei 225 is the best performer, up 0.6%. The Shanghai Composite and Kospi are flat, and the Hang Seng is 0.2% weaker.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the ASX 200 is once again trading in a flat, directionless manner. The market ended the session up 0.1% at 4818.10.
The market is seemingly treading water at the moment and just going through the motions. This feels like the two weeks leading into Christmas where investors’ attention was clearly elsewhere.
Despite the overall flat performance, there is some modest buying among energy and financial names. They are supporting the market but not enough for meaningful gains.
We’re witnessing a creeping trend here, with the market moving in small yet steady increments.
Despite the ongoing presence of various macroeconomic issues, which saw the market retreat in February, investors are now shrugging these off, dismissing their potential impact. This is a very important change in underlying market psychology.
The fact that the S&P 500 closed at post global financial crisis highs went largely unnoticed is testament to this point. Traders are looking at this market and asking themselves: "Where did the last 100 points of gains come from?"
After yesterdays down day in Europe, the late session rally on Wall Street looks set to reverse direction for stocks as we move into the weekend break.
Certainly Asia has found some upside although fears of further attempts by China to reign in economic growth, and the threat of runaway inflation, have the potential to keep the upside in check in the near term.
In the hours ahead however, those US retail sales figures will be headlining on the economic calendar and could help extend the rally we’ve seen.
Eurozone industrial production data will also be worth watching, there are still economic uncertainties here so some solid signs of recovery should bode well in general.
As is typical for a Friday, the earnings calendar is looking rather thin on the ground, but ahead of the open we’re calling the FTSE up 16 at 5633, the DAX up 23 at 5952 an the CAC up 10 at 3939.
The above comments do not constitute investment advice and neither IG Index nor SpreadBets.org.uk accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of them.
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"Spread Betting 12 Mar 2010" last update by AG, 12-Mar-2010
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