Spread Bets Daily Markets
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For today's update see Spread Betting Daily.
The Daily Update from Anthony Grech, Research Analyst, IG Index.
Spread Betting 22 May 2012: 11.00am Update
The FTSE 100 traded at 5353, up 0.7%, at 9.25am (London time) as oversold markets encouraged traders to pick up bargains.
Financial spread betting investors still carry hopes that European leaders might pull a trick out of the bag to plug the Eurozone crisis, as focus now shifts towards the EU summit on Wednesday.
Rumours are that the newly-elected French President will propose the idea of Eurobonds as a way of tackling the problems.
Meanwhile, the UK consumer price index (CPI) rate of inflation fell to 3% in April from 3.5% in March. Net borrowing, excluding financial intervention, showed a surplus of £16.5bn in April from the revised £14.64bn deficit the prior month.
Banks were up across the board, with Lloyds and RBS being the best performers in their sector, gaining 2.12% and 1.35% respectively.
Mining stocks were also up, as China promised to take more steps to support its slowing economy. Rio Tinto led the way, rising by 3.6%, followed by Antofagasta, which was up by 3.2%.
Vodafone gained 1.7% to 167p after it reported an annual increase in revenues of 1.2% to £46.42bn, beating analysts' forecasts.
Meanwhile, Carnival, the cruise operator, rose 3.2% after Exane BNP Paribas increased the price target from £23.5 to £25.
Among the biggest fallers were Man Group and the drug maker AstraZeneca, losing 2.33% and 1.12% respectively.
Remember that financial spread betting is a leveraged product and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. Spread betting may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
The above comments do not constitute investment advice and neither IG Index nor SpreadBets.org.uk accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of them.
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Spread Betting 21 May 2012: 10.45am Update
The FTSE 100 traded at 5295 as of 10am (London time) after G8 countries' support for Greece to remain part of the Eurozone boosted sentiment after last week's sharp sell-off.
Banks were up across the board, with RBS up 3.5%, whilst Vedanta Resources led the miners higher with a gain of 5.25%.
Spread betting market risk sentiment seemed to be higher after the UK and France encouraged talks over issuing Eurobonds.
German and French leaders are set to gather in Berlin before a European Union summit on 23 May.
The commodities markets gained on speculation that China will ease monetary policy to spur growth.
According to Premier Wen Jiabao, China should adopt a 'proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy' to bolster the world's second-largest economy.
British Land shares were slightly lower after the shopping centre owner reported a 5% rise in its net asset value for the last year but warned capital values were likely to be variable in the near term.
Considering the technical analysis, the FTSE remains in oversold territory, with a 14-day RSI of just under 30.
There is also strong support at the 5200 level, which has not been breached since November 2011.
Remember that financial spread betting is a leveraged product and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. Spread betting may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
The above comments do not constitute investment advice and neither IG Index nor SpreadBets.org.uk accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of them.
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Spread Betting 18 May 2012: 10.45am Update
While much of the markets attention is focused on the Facebook IPO, Moody’s decision to downgrade a number of Spanish banks inflicted further pain on bulls today.
By 9.40am (London time) the FTSE 100 was down 53.6 points (-1%) to 5284.81, falling closer to its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 5200.
Late on Thursday evening, Moody’s Investors Service slashed the ratings of 16 Spanish banks, including Banco Santander and BBVA.
They cited economic concerns for the country and restricted market funding access, among other reasons. A week earlier, Moody’s downgraded the ratings on 26 Italian lenders.
However, Spanish banks managed to pare initial losses following a report in Spanish daily Cinco Dias, which said Spanish banks were going to ask for a ban on short-selling.
Banks in London weren’t immune to Moody’s announcement either, with Lloyds Banking Group and RBS the sector’s worst performers.
Spanish, Italian and peripheral Eurozone government bonds came under renewed pressure on Friday morning, pushing up yields as investors fled risky assets for safe havens such as German government bonds.
Miners weighed down by signs of slowdown in China
In mining, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto fell on indications of slowing growth in China.
The latest reports showed house prices falling in a record number of Chinese cities last month, while Chinese auto dealers posted inventory levels that indicated deeper price cuts. The data reinforces bearish views about China’s economy.
Facebook IPO
In the news of the moment, Facebook is scheduled to have its IPO this afternoon.
On Thursday the company announced its IPO share price would be $38, at the upper end of the expected $34-$38 per share.
The size of the deal makes Facebook the third largest IPO ever in the US stock market, and the biggest debut since Visa’s $17.8 billion IPO in March 2008.
At $38 a share, Facebook would be valued at $104 billion and trade at over 100x historical earnings; for comparison, Apple's multiple is 14x and Google's is 19x.
One of the biggest challenges for Facebook, however, is maintaining growth momentum. The company hasn’t yet figured out a way to make money from the rapidly expanding number of users who access the social network on mobile devices such as tablets and smartphones.
IG Index’s specialised grey market is currently valuing Facebook at $130 billion, a 25% premium to the IPO valuation.
According to various studies, the average first-day returns on US IPOs is 15%. If this holds true today then Facebook’s share price could end at circa $120 billion. Clients will be able to trade Facebook shares on the IG Index spread betting platform this afternoon.
Remember that financial spread betting is a leveraged product and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. Spread betting may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
The above comments do not constitute investment advice and neither IG Index nor SpreadBets.org.uk accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of them.
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Spread Betting 17 May 2012: 10.30am Update
The FTSE 100 was trading at 5372, down 32 points and representing a loss of 0.6%.
This came as the heavyweight banks and mining companies dragged the blue-chip index lower on familiar concerns over Greece.
The negative sentiment surrounding Greece continued as the ECB yesterday stopped providing liquidity to four Greek banks, as they had not been successfully capitalized.
This put tremendous pressure on FTSE-listed banks, and they were led lower by Lloyds, RBS, Barclays, and HSBC, which were down by 2.49%, 1.05%, 1.8% and 0.86% respectively.
Mining stocks also declined on concerns regarding global growth in the aftermath of Greece's exit.
BHP Billiton said yesterday that it expected commodity prices to cool further as investors lost confidence in the long-term health of the global economy.
Mining stocks were led down by Vedanta Resources, 2.24% weaker, followed by Xstrata, Kazakhmys, Anglo American and Eurasian, which were down by 2.1%, 1.3%, 1.1% and 1.22% respectively.
Antofagasta, the copper miner, today posted a 35% rise in quarterly earnings and a 38.9% increase in turnover thanks to improved production volumes and stable copper prices.
Remember that financial spread betting is a leveraged product and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. Spread betting may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
The above comments do not constitute investment advice and neither IG Index nor SpreadBets.org.uk accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of them.
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Spread Betting 16 May 2012: 11.00am Update
The FTSE 100 dropped through the 5400 level for the first time since December last year as the implications of a new Greek election sent ripples through the markets. As of 9.45am London time, the index was trading at 5380, down 1.04%.
Banks were led lower by the decrease in risk appetite, although Barclays managed to buck this trend by rising 1.55% as of 9am (London time) thanks to a UBS upgrade from ‘neutral’ to ‘buy’.
Miners also weighed on the blue-chip index, with the major stocks in the red across the board. Xstrata was down more than 3% as UBS looked less kindly on the miner, with a downgrade from ‘buy’ to ‘neutral’.
New elections in Greece may be scheduled as early as June 10 after President Papoulias yesterday failed to broker a coalition in meetings with Pasok party head Evangelos Venizelos and other political leaders.
In their meeting yesterday, German Chancellor Merkel and new French President Hollande said they would consider measures to spur economic growth in Greece as long as voters committed to the austerity measures demanded of them to stay in the euro.
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) of Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong slumped 3.3%. This came after Deutsche Bank said investors should underweight Chinese stocks, on the expectation that earnings growth will be hurt by industry overcapacity. [1]
Back in the UK, online spread betting investors will be looking ahead at the quarterly inflation report due at 10.30am (London time).
On the technical side, the FTSE 100 is currently looking oversold with the 14-day RSI at 27 (a level below 30 signifies oversold territory). There seems to be strong support at the 5300 level, however, which hasn’t been breached since December last year.
Source: [1] Bloomberg news (16 May 2012)
Remember that financial spread betting is a leveraged product and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. Spread betting may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
The above comments do not constitute investment advice and neither IG Index nor SpreadBets.org.uk accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of them.
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Spread Betting 15 May 2012: 11.30am Update
This morning, the FTSE recovered slightly after yesterday’s crash and was trading at 5487, representing a gain of 0.3%.
The blue-chip index plunged 110 points yesterday, diving below the psychological 5500 mark as the prospect of Greece leaving the European Union caused widespread panic among investors.
Meanwhile, fresh elections seem increasingly likely in Greece as all attempts to form a working coalition have failed. Opinion polls suggest that the far-left Syriza party will gain the majority in the event of new elections.
UK shares trading
In UK shares trading, banks were fairly mixed this morning, with HSBC outperforming sector peers, while Barclays was the worst performer. In fact Barclays hasn’t been holding up so well lately.
Precision engineering firm Renishaw saw its shares surge 8% this morning after announcing that they had ‘experienced good growth over the year to date and are starting to see signs of an upturn in the electronics market’. Broker Numis also raised its recommendation on the company from ‘reduce’ to ‘hold’.
Miners recovered lost ground as base metal prices rose. Xstrata gained 0.25%, while BHP Billiton and Anglo American gained 0.31% and 0.57% respectively.
A rise in Brent crude oil to $111.58 saw the shares of BP and BG Group also rise, by 0.11% and 0.2% respectively.
BT Group climbed 0.66% to 206p after Alpha Value and Espirito Santo upgraded the stock.
Looking at the technicals, the FTSE is below the 200-day moving average, which is a very bearish sign.
The blue-chip index has found some support around 5420-5425 and is seen bouncing off oversold levels as shown by the 14-day RSI.
Eurozone sees mixed growth data
Better-than-expected GDP figures from Germany provided shares spread betting markets with some respite today.
However, it is hard to see there being a prolonged bullish reversal given the bearish sentiment among investors and the gravity of Europe’s bleak circumstances.
Nevertheless, investors heaved a sigh of relief after the German economy grew five times more than economists had forecast in the first quarter. This was thanks to robust exports to emerging markets which helped counter waning Eurozone demand.
GDP in Europe’s largest economy grew 0.5% in the first quarter, following a 0.2% contraction in the prior quarter. The latest figure compares with consensus estimates for a 0.1% gain.
In contrast, Italy’s economy contracted more-than-anticipated in the first quarter, shrinking 0.8% from the previous three months. Italy’s GDP has contracted for three consecutive quarters now.
Elsewhere, French president-elect Francois Hollande will be sworn in today before flying off to Berlin to meet Angela Merkel. They will try to agree how to bolster European growth.
In European markets, Vivendi surged 4.2% after unveiling better-than-expected first-quarter net income of €823 million, excluding one-off gains.
Remember that financial spread betting is a leveraged product and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. Spread betting may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
The above comments do not constitute investment advice and neither IG Index nor SpreadBets.org.uk accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of them.
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Spread Betting 14 May 2012: 10.30am Update
The FTSE 100 financial spread betting market continues to be affected by the Greek deadlock and Chancellor Merkel’s losses in a German state election.
The blue-chip index seemed to be on a bearish trend, having recently broken the 5500 support level.
Banks and mining weighed on the index today, with the FTSE 100 trading at 5498, down 1.38% as of 9.00am London time.
German wholesale price index data came in higher at 2.4% for April from 2.2% in March on a year-on-year basis, but failed to lift the FTSE.
Looking at the technicals, there seemed to be a bearish crossover on the FTSE 100, as seen by the moving average convergence-divergence (MACD) index.
The next level of support for the index seemed to be at the 5400 level, which has not been breached in 2012 so far.
Euro finance ministers meet today in Brussels at 6pm London time and may discuss the international bailout for Greece.
The build-up to the summit comes as efforts to form a Greek coalition government have suffered a setback yet again, leading the country one step closer to further elections.
Germany's Chancellor Merkel has had elections of her own to worry about, as her Christian Democrat party lost out in yesterday's North-Rhine Westphalia elections.
She is also facing increasing isolation due to her austerity measures, with the debate between growth and austerity set to resume when Chancellor Merkel meets Francois Hollande in Berlin tomorrow, soon after he is sworn in as President.
Eurozone industrial production data will be out at 10am London time, and the spread betting markets are expecting this to fall by 1.4% in March on a year-on-year basis.
Further east, China's central bank said on Saturday that it intends to lower the reserve requirement ratio for banks by 50 basis points as of 18 May, in order to boost liquidity and aid the slowing economy.
Remember that financial spread betting is a leveraged product and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. Spread betting may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
The above comments do not constitute investment advice and neither IG Index nor SpreadBets.org.uk accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of them.
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IG Index Spread Betting - No Fees, No Commissions, Free Charts and Live Prices.
Spread Bet on Indices, Forex, Commodities, Shares and more. For details see IG Index.
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Spread Betting 10 May 2012: 11.00am Update
The FTSE was off to a lethargic start today, with the blue-chip index trading around 3.6 points higher at 5533.66 while the broader FTSE 250 index was 80.5 points higher at 10,535.69.
Recent financial spread betting market developments are making it extremely difficult to remain positive about the continuation of the bullish run.
As a matter of fact, 50% of investors participating in a Bloomberg global poll believe that the 17-nation euro area will lose one of its members this year.
Last night Spain’s economy ministry said its bank bailout fund will convert €4.5 billion of preferred shares in Bankia’s parent company Banco Financiero y de Ahorros (BFA) into voting shares.
The action will give it a controlling stake of 45% in Bankia, effectively nationalising the bank. The ministry said the government will provide the capital that’s ‘strictly necessary’ to clean up the lender. The news helped Spain’s beaten-down IBEX rebound marginally this morning.
Greece uncertainty continues
Meanwhile, the political situation in Greece continues to go nowhere; the beleaguered Mediterranean nation has failed to form a government for the third day running.
Having said that, this morning's news that the anti-bailout party Syriza failed to form a new coalition may have acted as a stabilizer for European indices spread betting markets.
An announcement by the European Financial Stability Facility late on Wednesday may have also calmed market tensions. The EFSF said that Greece will receive most of its next aid tranche on schedule, despite political turmoil in the country.
Pasok leader Evangelos Venizelos will try to form a government when he receives a three-day mandate from President Karolos Papoulias today.
China and UK data
Elsewhere, Chinese trade data released today showed a sharp drop in activity in April, raising fresh concerns about the resilience of the Chinese economy.
China’s exports rose 4.9% year-on-year in April, while imports rose just 0.3%. Consensus forecasts had tipped 11% growth for imports and an 8.5% gain exports.
The sharp drop in imports could suggest that Chinese consumer demand is slowing, which doesn’t bode well for growth.
Back home, UK industrial production figures fell 2.6% year-on-year in March, in line with expectations, while manufacturing production fell 0.9%, beating forecasts for a 1.3% drop.
At midday, the Bank of England is due to unveil its interest-rate decision. No changes are expected, although current conditions make the case for an expansion of asset purchases even more compelling.
Remember that financial spread betting is a leveraged product and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. Spread betting may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
The above comments do not constitute investment advice and neither IG Index nor SpreadBets.org.uk accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of them.
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Spread Betting 9 May 2012: 13.00pm Update
It has been another painful morning for markets, with the FTSE losing 0.95% to trade at 5500 by midday in London.
Greece and Spain continued to lead the indices lower as the European crisis continued to unfold.
The global sell-off was triggered by fears that a planned coalition government in Greece would look to void the austerity deal, which was the basis for the recent €240 billion bailout package.
Strong corporate news from Sainsbury's and ITV helped limit losses on the FTSE 100 spread betting index today as it fell beneath the level at which it started the year.
ITV gained 3.5% by 11.30am, while Sainsbury’s was up 1.5% after sales beat expectations.
Shares in ITV made the best gain on the index, after the broadcaster unveiled a 13% rise in ‘external revenue’ of £87 million.
This is positive because it demonstrates the company is able to wean itself off advertising revenue, a traditional source of income that has been softening on the back of macroeconomic uncertainty.
Ongoing Greek crisis
Greece continued to be in the limelight as the country tried to rebuild its government after multiple attempts to form a coalition.
The latest attempt came from the radical leftist Alexis Tsipras, who is scheduled to meet with the leaders of Greece's mainstream parties later this afternoon.
However, there is little chance of clinching a deal on a coalition government after Mr Tsipras set backing out of the EU bailout deal as a condition.
If, as increasingly seems likely, no politician is able to string together a majority in the parliament, a new election would have to be held in June.
Mr Tsipras, the youngest Greek party leader, will be hoping for a stronger mandate in a new vote.
German data surprises on the upside
On a positive note, data released this morning showed Germany’s exports rising 0.9% in March, exceeding consensus estimates for a 0.5% decline.
Although the 0.9% gain was lower than a 1.6% expansion in February, spread betting investors still cheered as it suggests that foreign demand for German goods is a lot more resilient than initially thought.
Imports also surprised to the upside, rising 1.2%. That beat expectations of an increase of 1% and follows a 3.9% gain in February.
To add to the positive news from Germany, this morning’s government bond auction was a success.
Germany managed to sell €4.032 billion of five-year bonds from a maximum target of €5 billion.
Demand, as seen by the drop in bid-to-cover to 1.4x from 1.8x previously, was lower on the back of record low coupons. Yields dropped to 0.56% from 0.80% at a previous auction.
Remember that financial spread betting is a leveraged product and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. Spread betting may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
The above comments do not constitute investment advice and neither IG Index nor SpreadBets.org.uk accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of them.
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Spread Betting 8 May 2012: 12.30pm Update
The FTSE was trading at 5635.92 at 11.50am (London time), representing a loss of 0.34% as political uncertainty returned to Europe after the weekend elections in France and Greece.
Socialist Francois Hollande beat incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy in the French presidential elections on Sunday, while the Greek elections failed to produce an outright majority for any political party.
France's new president, Francois Hollande, is known to oppose severe austerity measures at the cost of growth.
In Greece the two main political parties, which supported the conditions laid down by the European Union, lost overwhelmingly.
In this context, the prospect of a re-negotiation of the Greek bailout or Greece leaving the EU cannot be ruled out.
Banks decline despite HSBC's strong first-quarter performance
HSBC shares were up 1.48% today after it posted a 25% jump in underlying pre-tax profit in the first quarter to 31 March.
Despite the strong performance, other banks were in the red after Spain prepared to spend close to €10 billion to bail out the Spanish lender Bankia.
Lloyds declined 2.3%, while Barclays, Standard Chartered and RBS were down by 0.79%, 1.23% and 2.57% respectively.
Remember that financial spread betting is a leveraged product and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. Spread betting may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
The above comments do not constitute investment advice and neither IG Index nor SpreadBets.org.uk accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of them.
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IG Index Spread Betting - No Fees, No Commissions, Free Charts and Live Prices.
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"Spread Bets Daily Markets" last update by AG, 22-May-2012
Warning: Financial spread betting carries a high level of risk. You can lose more than your initial investment or stake. Financial spread betting may not be suitable for all investors. Only trade with money that you can afford to lose. Make sure you fully understand the risk involved. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
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