June 2008 Spread Bet
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Weekly Online Spread Bet Comment, update 23 Jun 08
Part 1 - Trading News - Last Week's Markets
Part 2 - Economic Indicators and Company Results
Part 3 - The Financial Press, what the papers said
Trading News - Last Week's Markets
The week had all the roller coaster excitement we promised last week. Predictably the main drivers were the banks, but arguably the biggest bolt came from the bank with the best results. After producing better than expected earnings Goldman’s turned on the market with a forecast that US banks may need to raise a further $65 billion of capital! Representing the UK, Royal Bank of Scotland warned clients to batten down the hatches for the mother of all sell-offs in the next three months. The bank warned of a 300 point fall in the S&P. Citigroup warned of further write-downs and losses for Q2 and Moodys stripped monoline insurers AMBAC and MBIA of their precious AAA credit ratings.
UK inflation did not disappoint, not so much tip-toeing as leaping above the 3% target range to 3.3%. Paradoxically, Sterling plunged as Mervyn King indicated that he would not be raising rates under the present circumstances. Later in the week Sterling rallied as the central bank message changed to say that action would be taken, if necessary, to fight inflation.
US and European equities fell to their lowest levels since March; all the major indexes fell by around 3%, though the Dow fared slightly worse at -3.8%. The exception was the Nikkei, which was barely changed, buoyed by the weaker yen and caught up in China's end of week rally.
Equities Spread Bets
Once again US banks lived up to their reputation; Lehmans made their first quarterly loss in 14 years and Morgan Stanley saw a slump in profits, though Goldman's results were better than forecast. Initially Barclays benefited from confirmation that they were looking to place shares with overseas investors. But as the week closed they were dragged lower, along with other banks. HBOS suffered again with the share price briefly dropping below the rights issue price. This time though there was a smack of genuine selling based on the outlook for the bank, rather than short-selling. Settee makers Land of Leather plunged 60% and SCS Upholstery 40% on fears over last-ditch financing. It was all change on the FTSE merry-go-round with Alliance & Leicester, Tate & Lyle, Home Retail and Persimmon dropping out of the index. They were replaced by Drax, Invensys, Petrofac and Ferrexpo.
Forex Spread Bets
Bernanke appeared to be following the ECB's lead again, backtracking on the threat of higher interest rates. The message from the US central bank was that the market was pricing in more rises than they were talking about. The Dollar weakened on the week to $1.5620 against the Euro and $1.9750 against Sterling. Sterling was confused by Mervyn King, who seemed to veer from initially saying that he would not raise rates to fight higher inflation and then later switching to committing the Bank to do all that it takes to fight inflation. But the MPC Currency Hedge Fund is a top performer. The Euro was top dog, rising to EUR GBP £0.791.
Gold Spread Bets - Crude Oil Spread Bets
Oil Traded nervously ahead of Sunday's meeting at Jeddah. On Monday weakness in the Dollar saw oil shoot to a new high of $139.89, but in a week awash with headlines and rumours it was unable to sustain that level. Talk of Israeli military exercises, terrorist attacks on oil companies in Nigeria and China raising the price of oil to individuals bounced the price around the $130-139 trading range. However, Brent Crude Oil ended the week barely changed at $134.86.
The Gold spread betting market quietly pushed above the $900 barrier, finishing at $905.6, a $40 gain on the week.
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Spread Bets - Economic Indicators and Company Results
Week Commencing 23 Jun 08
First out of the blocks will be the market's reaction to the outcome of the Jeddah meeting on Crude Oil. On Wednesday the US Federal Reserve will announce any change in interest rates, but no change is expected. There are bags of sentiment surveys spanning the major economies; it's hard to imagine that any of them will be jolly, but just how bad they are might depend on the cut-off date. Nationwide House Prices and German CPI will be out at some point, but they're both being a bit coy at the moment. Be aware that on Thursday morning members of the UK's MPC will be testifying to the Treasury Select Committee. On the earnings front reports from Kesa Electrics (Comet) and DSG (Dixons) are unlikely to be encouraging.
Monday
Economic Indicators
UK: 00.01 Rightmove House Prices
EU: 09.00 German IFO Business Climate, EU advance Service and Manufacturing PMIs
Results
UK: Aggreko
US: Walgreen
Tuesday
Economic Indicators
UK: 09.30 BBA Mortgage Approvals
IRE: 11.00 Trade Balance
EU: 07.10 German GFK Consumer Confidence, 07.45 French Consumer Spending, 07.50 French Business Confidence
US: 14.00 S&P / Case-Shiller House Prices, 15.00 Consumer Confidence, House Price Index
Results
UK: Ashstead, James Cropper, Kesa Electrics, Regal Petroleum finals, Porvair, Safestore, Thomas Cook interims, Petrofac trading update
US: Kroger
Wednesday
Economic Indicators
UK: 11.00 CBI Distributive Trades survey
EU: 10.00 Industrial Orders
US: 13.30 Durable Goods, 15.00 New Home Sales, 15.30 Weekly Oil Inventories, 19.15 US Interest Rate Decision
Results
UK: Patientline, Renold, Stagecoach, WS Atkins finals, AMEC, Davis Service, Devro, Pendragon trading update
US: Bed, Bath & Beyond, General Mills, Monsanto, Nike, Oracle, Research In Motion
Thursday
Economic Indicators
UK: 09.30 Business Investment
EU: 07.45 French Consumer Confidence, 09.00 EU M3 Money Supply
US: 13.30 Q1 GDP, Weekly Jobless, 15.00 Existing Home Sales
Results
UK: DSG, Dyson, Mountview Estates, DS Smith finals, Arriva, Balfour Beatty, Bunzl, Go-Ahead, Standard Chartered, Trinity Mirror, United Business Media trading updates
IRE: NTR full year plus EGM
US: Lennar, Micro Technology
Friday
Economic Indicators
UK: 09.30 Q1 GDP
EU: 07.45 French Producer Prices, 07.50 French Q1 GDP, 09.00 EU Retail PMI, Current a/c, 10.00 EU Business, Consumer, Economic and Industrial Confidence numbers
US: 13.30 Personal Income & Spending, 15.00 University of Michigan Consumer Confidence
Results
There are no results due out today
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The Financial Press, what the papers said:
Last update: 23 Jun 08
Breaking news from Jeddah is that although the Saudis are only increasing output to the widely predicted 9.7m barrels per day. Bloomberg quotes the Saudi Oil Minister as offering to supply above and beyond that amount if customers say it's needed. Saudi's capacity will be 12.5 million barrels per day by the end of 2009, but could rise to 15 million if required.
Plenty for traders in Barclays to get their teeth into; the Independent reveals the overseas investors likely to bail out Barclays £4 billion share placing. However, according to The Sunday Times, there could be some problems over one of the potential investors, the Qatari Investment Authority. A senior member of the Qatari royal family is taking legal action against Barclays, alleging gross negligence over a case when he lost £40 million from his account due to fraud.
The Sunday Times puts a bit more fat on last week’s rumour that Lloyds TSB is eyeing up Dresdner Bank. Allianz, Dresdner’s parent company, has put the bank in play and Lloyds is said to be putting a potential deal in place.
The Scotland on Sunday reminds us that as of tomorrow the identity of short-sellers will be revealed, though we don’t reckon too many of us will have to worry. The article focuses on the woes of HBOS and points out that with the share price once more back at the rights issue price the take-up could be pretty dismal. HBOS has 2 million private investors, many who know nothing about the stock market and are unlikely to take up the additional rights. Although HBOS is guaranteed its cash, a poor take-up will reflect poorly on the current management.
News from the Sunday Business Post that BT Ireland has awarded a €12m contract to ESB. The 12-month deal is to supply BT sites north and south of the border.
The Independent talks about the mess the UK is in, but tells us to be grateful we’re not in the ‘one size fits all’ Eurozone. Despite torrid times in some of the smaller member countries, European interest rates are set to rise. But will it be just the once, or the first of many?
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"June 2008 Spread Bet" written by paddy powe, last updated 23-Jun-2008
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