Spread Trading
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SpreadBets.org.uk - Weekly Comment Supplied and Sponsored by paddypowertrader.
Part 1 - Economic Indicators and Company Results
Part 2 - The Financial Press, what the papers said
Weekly Online Spread Bet Comment, update 17 Dec 07
Spread Bets - Economic Indicators and Company Results
Week Commencing 17 Dec 07
After last week’s higher than expected inflation figures in both the US and Europe, numbers from the UK are keenly awaited. Also of interest will be the minutes from the Bank of England’s last meeting when they voted (surprisingly) to cut rates, and retail sales data. Europe has plenty of confidence surveys out this week. In the US, the big guns Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bear Stearns will be reporting on their sub-prime exposure. FTSE options expire on Friday.
Monday
Economic Indicators
UK: 00.01 Rightmove House Prices
EU: 09.00 Advance PMI Indicators
US: 13.30 Empire Manufacturing, 14.00 TIC Capital Inflows, 18.00 NAHB Housing Index
Results
US: Adobe Systems
Tuesday
Economic Indicators
UK: 09.30 CPI
IRE: 11.00 Wholesale Price Index
EU: 10.00 Trade Balance
US: 13.30 Housing Starts & Building Permits
Results
UK: National Express trading statement
IRE: Kingspan trading update
US: Goldman Sachs
Wednesday
Economic Indicators
UK: 09.30 Bank of England minutes
EU: 07.00 German Producer Prices, 09.00 German IFO Business Climate
US: 15.30 Oil inventories
Results
UK: Sports Direct interims and EGM, McCarthy & Stone AGM
US: Morgan Stanley
Thursday
Economic Indicators
UK: 09.30 Q3 GDP, Government Borrowing and Money Supply
IRE: 11.00 Quarterly National Accounts
US: 13.30 Q3 GDP and Weekly Jobless, 15.00 Leading Indicators, 17.00 Philadelphia Fed Index
Results
UK: Persimmon trading update
US: Bear Stearns, Research In Motion
Friday
Economic Indicators
UK: 09.30 Retail Sales
EU: 07.45 French Consumer Spending and INSEE Business Sentiment, 10.00 EU Industrial New Orders
US: 13.30 PCE Price Index and Personal Income & Spending, 15.00 University Of Michigan Confidence
Results
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The Financial Press, what the papers said:
Last update: 17 Dec 07
Hamish McRae in the Independent compares last week’s co-ordinated central bank action with the rare previous actions, which were in currency, rather than money, markets. He warns that we will be made to pay for the high street banks’ folly as they become over cautious on lending for years to come. The central banks’ action of pumping money into the system is also likely to backfire in the longer term by producing higher levels of inflation.
In an almost refreshing contrast to all the sub-prime bad news, the Telegraph anticipates record results from Goldman Sachs on Tuesday. If so, wait for cries of “foul” as the success is due to its structured products team betting against the very products they created.
Liam Halligan in the Telegraph defended his previous week’s article, which said that the Bank of England was wrong to cut rates. He reminds readers of a similar call, subsequently proved correct, in 2005. He concedes that this time it is different but that we do have an inflation problem and that cutting official rates isn’t the way to bring down money market rates, which are reacting to a climate of distrust amongst the banks.
The Sunday Business Post reports on a likely takeover bid for insurance group FBD. The paper reckons that a European financial company is close to making a Euro 1 billion offer for the company.
Irish Life & Permanent may be forced to raise mortgage rates again, according to the Sunday Business Post. Despite the European Central Bank keeping rates steady the IL&P, which warned that profits could be 10% lower in 2008 if the credit crunch continued, might need to raise rates to offset the effects of higher money market rates.
Oil barons out there might be interested in David Smith’s piece in the Sunday Times. He disputes the ‘peak oil’ theory, arguing that lower levels of production now is a lagged response to a much lower oil price and that we’re more likely to have passed the peak for demand than supply.
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"Spread Trading" written by RThomas, last updated 17-Dec-2007
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