Thomas Cook Share Spreads Plummet as Firm Renegotiates Debt
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For today's update see Spread Betting Daily.
The Daily Update from Anthony Grech, Research Analyst, IG Index.
Spread Betting 22 November 2011: 11.00am Update
European equities rose in early trade this morning, bouncing from a steep sell-off in the previous session, though gains are likely to be capped by worries over high Eurozone and US debt levels and after the US super committee failed to reach an agreement over the deficit reduction deal.
By 10.30am (London time) the FTSE 100 was up 0.52% at 5249.61, while the broader FTSE 250 was 0.34% higher at 9801.30.
US 'super committee' at an impasse
The US congressional committee, responsible for striking a deficit reduction deal, ended its work without an agreement last night, delaying any solution to America's debt problems.
The committee's failure to agree on $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction sets up a year of uncertainty on taxes and spending that could further rattle financial spread betting investors already shaken over Eurozone debt woes.
During the talks however, Republicans did show a new willingness to move from their opposition to tax increases. The panel waited until after US markets closed at 9pm (London time) to declare the effort dead, after shares on Wall Street had already hit a one-month low due to fears of out-of-control government debt in Europe and the US.
Ratings agencies Standard & Poor's and Moody's announced yesterday there will be no immediate downgrade to their credit ratings on the US due to the failure of a congressional 'super committee' to reach an agreement on debt reduction.
However Fitch, which currently rates the US as triple-A, said it could cut that outlook, with the possibility of a downgrade. Fitch said it would finish its assessment of the US by the end of the month.
UK public sector borrowing broadly on track
While the Eurozone and the US struggle with their debt loads, UK economic data released this morning showed that public sector borrowing was slightly lower than expected in October, as growth in tax revenue outpaced spending.
The figures, which come a week before the chancellor George Osborne presents his autumn budget statement to parliament, suggest the government remains on track to meet its deficit reduction goal this fiscal year.
Public sector net borrowing (excluding financial sector interventions) fell to £6.498 billion last month from £7.717 billion in October 2010, slightly below economists' forecasts for £6.8 billion.
September's figure was revised down to £12.964 billion. For the fiscal year to date, the figure totalled £68.314 billion, remaining broadly on target with the government's target of £122 billion.
Thomas Cook shares plunge
Europe's second biggest tour operator, Thomas Cook, announced this morning it had entered fresh talks with its banks as a result of a deterioration in trading in some areas of the business in the current quarter, and because of its cash and liquidity position.
Thomas Cook, which has issued a string of profit warnings, had struck a deal with its banks in October to relax the terms of its lending but has asked them to consider a further amendment after trading continued to decline. Discussions today with its debt holders will try to renegotiate the terms of it £1.59 billion debt burden for the second time in a month.
Thomas Cook said it would delay publication of its full-year results, originally due on Thursday, until the discussions are concluded. However the company said it still expects its full-year operating profit to be in line with previous guidance. Shares in the company fell over 70% this morning down to 10.90p.
US pre-market
US futures are after pointing to a mixed open on Wall Street this afternoon, with Dow contracts down 0.05% and S&P 500 futures up 0.21%.
Looking ahead to this afternoon, third-quarter US GDP and personal consumption data is due at 1.30pm, while the November Richmond Fed manufacturing reading is due at 3pm (both London time). These readings will be followed by the Federal Reserve's minutes from their latest policy meeting at 7pm (London time).
Remember that financial spread betting is a leveraged product and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. Spread betting may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
The above comments do not constitute investment advice and neither IG Index nor SpreadBets.org.uk accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of them.
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Spread Betting 22 November 2011: 5.00am Update
Global markets declined overnight after US lawmakers failed to reach a deficit-cutting agreement.
This failure to act is magnifying the European debt issues that investors are currently trying to deal with. Moody’s came out to say that rising French government borrowing costs and an uncertain economic position continue to pose a threat to the outlook for France’s AAA credit rating. This confirms what most spread betting investors have feared for a while.
Among the major averages, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.1% to end at 11,547. The S&P dropped 1.9% to 1193 and the Nasdaq shed 1.9% to close at 2523. The charts are looking increasingly dire after last night’s move sent some of the major market averages below their key 50-day moving average.
Asia & Australia
Across Asia, regional markets are weaker as risk assets declined overnight after US lawmakers failed to reach a deficit-cutting agreement. A warning on France's credit rating by Moody's added to investor fear of contagion, but markets have now come off their lows, with notable recoveries in the resource and financial space.
Around the region, the Shanghai Composite is down 1%, the Hang Seng is 0.6% lower and the Nikkei is flat. Japanese exporters have enjoyed some relief after USD/JPY spreads spiked higher this morning.
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 is down 0.7% at 4133 after hitting a six-and-a-half week low of 4093.9 on European and US debt problems. Despite the recovery, it is now facing key near-term resistance in the 4140 region, which was previous support.
Given the relatively low volume we have been seeing, it does not take a lot to move this market up or down. Materials names are leading broad-based declines, with Rio Tinto down 2.4% and Iluka weaker 1.6%.
OneSteel has plunged 10% after BlueScope announced a $600 million capital raising to pay down debt. The capital raising is at a 35% discount to BSL’s previous trading price.
Energy and industrial stocks are underperforming, with Santos losing 2.5% and Leighton Holdings down 1.3%. The strong recovery in the Aussie market today has been led by the high-yielding bank stocks. After poor performances this morning, the big banks are now significantly off their lows.
Defensives are outperforming, with the likes of AGL Energy, Telstra and Woolworths holding up well. Further weakness will throw up bargains in yield plays such as Woolworths, Telstra and banks.
Europe
Today brings UK public sector net borrowing and Europe consumer confidence. However, we doubt these will be significant events given the prevailing debt crisis facing the Eurozone. Traders will also be turning to the European Commission which is set to publish a report on Wednesday outlining three proposals for a debt crisis resolution.
There is also increasing speculation that China will ease monetary policy in the coming months after data showing lower inflation and increased bank lending in October.
Ahead of the European open we're calling the FTSE up 35 at 5258, the DAX up 39 at 5645 and the CAC up 27 at 2922.
Remember that financial spread betting is a leveraged product and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. Spread betting may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
The above comments do not constitute investment advice and neither IG Index nor SpreadBets.org.uk accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of them.
Advert:
IG Index Spread Betting - No Fees, No Commissions, Free Charts and Live Prices.
Spread Bet on Indices, Forex, Commodities, Shares and more. For details see IG Index.
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"Thomas Cook Share Spreads Plummet as Firm Renegotiates Debt" last update by AG, 22-Nov-2011
Warning: Financial spread betting carries a high level of risk. You can lose more than your initial investment or stake. Financial spread betting may not be suitable for all investors. Only trade with money that you can afford to lose. Make sure you fully understand the risk involved. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
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