UK Spread Betting
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SpreadBets.org.uk - Weekly Comment Supplied and Sponsored by paddypowertrader.
Weekly Online Spread Bet Comment, update 18 Feb 08
Part 1 - Trading News - Last Week's Markets
Part 2 - Economic Indicators and Company Results
Part 3 - The Financial Press, what the papers said
Trading News - Last Week's Markets
Last week was a tale of two central banks; chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, highlighted risks to the US economy (really Ben?) and signalled further cuts in interest rates. By contrast, the Bank of England's Inflation Report suggested that rising inflation would mean fewer cuts in rates than the market was expecting.
Equities Spread Bets
Equity markets showed good gains after Warren Buffet offered to take over $800 billion of municipal bonds. However it didn't take long for investors to realise that such a move would leave the monolines with all the crap. Moodys withdrew their AAA rating of bond insurer FGIC. Despite all the excitement, equities were little changed on the week. The FTSE remained flat, but the Dax, Dow and S&P all rose by around 1%. Asian markets fared better with the Hang Seng +2.9% and Japan up 4.7%.
Once again results were dominated by the financial sector. UBS announced a further record loss and Bradford & Bingley's results were worse than expected. Credit Suisse played an excellent poker hand, combining a 72% fall in profits with the confidence to increase its dividend. American Insurance Group said that due to material weaknesses in their loan valuations, losses would rise from $1 billion to $5 billion. Bank of Ireland warned that volatile stock markets and the strength of the Euro would affect its performance for the year ended March 2008. It wasn't all doom and gloom though, with good results from British Energy, Diageo, RTZ, Elan, Coca Cola and Reckit Benckiser.
Forex Spread Bets
The Dollar fell against most currencies on strong hints of further rate cuts next month. Looking at the FX spreads: EUR - USD rate rose to $1.4670 and GBP - USD rose but then fell to $1.9580. Sterling was boosted by suggestions that interest rates wouldn't fall as far as the market expected. The Yen weakened on switching into higher-yielding currencies as risk appetite improved.
Gold Spread Bets
Gold suffered another unconvincing week finishing $11 lower at $908.45.
Crude Oil Spread Bets
Colder weather in the US, and the ongoing dispute between Exxon and Venezuela saw Brent Crude Oil rise $3 to $94.63.
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Spread Bets - Economic Indicators and Company Results
Week Commencing 18 Feb 08
There might be a cautious start to the week from those who recall the last time the US was closed on a Monday (the Dax fell by 7% and the FTSE by 4.5%). We expect plenty of focus on the banking sector after Sunday's news that Northern Rock will be nationalised. Also the bank reporting season begins in earnest with results from Barclays, Alliance & Leicester, AIB and Lloyds TSB. Make sure your news services are working on Wednesday; sandwiched between minutes from the previous meetings of the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve are US inflation and housing numbers. On Thursday UK retail sales will provide a useful update on the state of consumer spending.
Monday
US Markets Closed- Presidents Day
Economic Indicators
UK: 00.01 Rightmove House Prices
Results
UK: Low & Bonar final
EU: Merck
Tuesday
Economic Indicators
US: 18.00 NAHB Housing Index
Results
UK: Barclays, Cadbury Schweppes, Domino's Pizza, Intercontinental Hotels, Morgan Crucible and Scottish & Newcastle finals, Thorntons interims
US: Hewlett-Packard
Wednesday
Economic Indicators
UK: 09.30 Bank of England minutes, Money Supply and Government Borrowing, 11.00 CBI Industrial Trends
EU: 07.00 German Producer Prices,
US: 13.30 CPI and Housing Starts, 19.00 Federal Reserve minutes
Results
UK: Alliance & Leicester, Anglo American, Pendragon and Rexam finals
IRE: AIB final
EU: Deutsche Boerse
US: Hertz Global
Thursday
Economic Indicators
UK: 09.30 Retail Sales
IRE: 11.00 Wholesale Price Index and External Trade
US: 13.30 Weekly Jobless, 15.00 Philadelphia Fed Index and Lead Indicators, 15.30 Oil Inventories
Results
UK: BAE Systems, Centrica, Colt Telecom, Reed Elsevier, Shire and Tomkins finals, Kingfisher trading update
IRE: Icon Q4 earnings
EU: Allianz, BASF and Continental
US: Barrick Gold, JC Penney, Morningstar, Newmont Mining
Friday
Economic Indicators
EU: 07.45 French Consumer Spending, 09.00 EU Advance Manufacturing and Services PMI, 10.00 EU Industrial Orders
Results
UK: Lloyds TSB
EU: RWE
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The Financial Press, what the papers said:
Last update: 18 Feb 08
There was plenty in the press on the Northern Rock situation. But all a total waste of time and paper as the Treasury later announced the nationalisation of the bank. This hurried report in the Observer is enough to give you a rough idea of the latest developments, but expect plenty more over the next few days.
The UK banks reporting season is starting to rock and roll with plenty of weekend speculation. The Independent puts Barclays in the spotlight, questioning the extent of sub-prime losses the bank will reveal on Tuesday. This fear follows larger than expected write-downs from Bradford & Bingley who chose to value some of their exposures differently. It’s thought that by using a similar approach, Barclays would increase its write-downs. There’s a far more upbeat report in the Sunday Times. The paper reckons that Barclays and Lloyds TSB will support good results with unexpected dividend increases. On current numbers Barclays yields 7.2% and Lloyds yields a staggering 8.4%.
The Observer leads with a scare story on Barratt Developments. It speculates that the house builder is close to breaching banking covenants with debt approaching £2 billion. But after the initial fright the paper reassures shareholders that the banks are unlikely to penalise Barratt and that the company is confident of reaching its targets anyway.
The Sunday Business Post highlights the housing problem in Ireland. Its analysis of figures from the Irish Banking Federation suggests that over a third of new homes added to the market last year remain unsold.
The Telegraph reports that BSkyB is set to appeal against the Competition Commission’s verdict that it should cut its holding in ITV.
"UK Spread Betting" last update by RThomas, 18-Feb-2008
Warning: Financial spread betting carries a high level of risk. You can lose more than your initial investment or stake. Financial spread betting may not be suitable for all investors. Only trade with money that you can afford to lose. Make sure you fully understand the risk involved. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
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Spread Bets News - October 2008 >> With no bailout plan agreed, the Dow Jones finished down 1.80% and the FTSE 100 down 4.20%. The NASDAQ lost 3.41% and the German DAX fell 1.98% . . . read more - Spread Bets News - October 2008.
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Spread Betting News - September 2008 >> Commodities were also extremely volatile with Brent Crude Oil trading in a range of under $90 to over $100. It finished with a . . . read more - Spread Betting News - September 2008.
Spread Bets - September 2008 - last update: 15-Sep-2008
Spread Bets - 2008 >> Commodities were also extremely volatile with Brent Crude Oil trading in a range of under $90 to over $100. It finished with a 1.29% gain. Gold added $88 last Thursday, its largest ever one day Dollar gain. It closed . . . read more - Spread Bets - September 2008.
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Spread Betting News and Info - August 2008 >> Despite an escalation in the Russian-Georgia conflict, Commodities continued to fall. Further Dollar strength, and increasing fears of slower growth, destroyed the gold price. Over the week the precious metal dropped a massive $70, breaking below the key support level at . . . read more - Spread Betting News and Info - August 2008.
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Spread Bets News - August 2008 >> Commodities tumbled this week due to deteriorating growth prospects in world economies. Oil markets took the worst beating as Crude lost 8.9%. Less than a month after touching $146, Brent Crude is now barely over $113. Gold did not fare much better, as it lost 5.9% to close at $856.70. Technically, it now stands at a . . . read more - Spread Bets News - August 2008.
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Spread Betting News - August 2008 >> Amongst financials Merrill Lynch epitomised the craziness. On Monday it fell 12% and on Tuesday another 9.5% before rebounding 8% before Tuesdays close. The reason: they revealed they were selling $30.6bn worth of CDOs for just $0.22 . . . read more - Spread Betting News - August 2008.
Online Spread Trading July 2008 - last update: 28-Jul-2008
Online Spread Trading July 2008 >> Equity markets began the week in good spirits. Corporate earnings were generally better than expected and a rally in oil and gold failed to attract any enthusiasm. However Thursday brought a harsh dose of reality in the form of weak economic numbers across the globe. In the UK, retail sales . . . read more - Online Spread Trading July 2008.
Spread Betting July 2008 - last update: 21-Jul-2008
Spread Betting July 2008 >> There had already been signs of a wobble in the Crude Oil price before Bernanke expressed his concern about weaker growth. But this speech, followed by Wednesdays report of far larger stocks of oil, and combined with Thursdays option expiry smashed the oil price. Brent Crude ended the week down $14 at $130.19, a fall of 10% on the week. Gold held its new trading range, and moved above $980 on Tuesday. But the collapse in . . . read more - Spread Betting July 2008.
Spread Bets July 2008 - last update: 14-Jul-2008
Spread Bets July 2008 >> The US Dollar and Sterling both fell against the Euro as their economies looked to be weakening at a faster rate. The FTSE closed down 2.8% at 5261, the Dax -1.9% at 6153. In the US the S&P closed -1.9% at 1239 and the Dow -1.7% at 11100, after dropping below 11000 earlier in the day. In the Far East the Nikkei . . . read more - Spread Bets July 2008.
Online Spread Bet July 2008 - last update: 07-Jul-2008
The Dow and S&P fell by 0.5% and 1.2% respectively, compared to falls of 2.3% on the FTSE and Nikkei, and 2.1% on the Dax. Emerging markets bore the brunt of the selling with falls of 4-6%. The Dow Jones is now officially a bear market. The FTSE 100 has so far survived by only . . . read more - Online Spread Bet July 2008.
Spread Trading News - June 2008 - last update: 30-Jun-2008
Spread Trading News - June 2008 >> Equity markets around the world were hit by fears of yet more write-downs in the banking sector and signs that the crisis was starting to affect the real economy. As Fortis and Barclays both announced they were raising capital, Goldmans downgraded Citigroup and Merrills, sending their shares 10% lower on the week. On Thursday rumours that Chrysler was seeking protection from its creditors sent the markets into a tailspin. Crude Oil rose to a new record high, and the Dollar fell, as the president of OPEC said that he could see oil at $170 this summer. A flight to safety also saw gold gain ground. US equities led the way down, stopping just short of a 20% fall from the peak that signifies a bear market. The Dow fell by 4.2%, the S&P by 3%. In Europe the DAX was -2.4% and FTSE . . . read more - Spread Trading News - June 2008.
June 2008 Spread Bet - last update: 23-Jun-2008
June 2008 Spread Bet >> First out of the blocks will be the markets reaction to the outcome of the Jeddah meeting on Crude Oil. On Wednesday the US Federal Reserve will announce any change in interest rates, but no change is expected. There are bags of sentiment surveys spanning the major economies; it is hard to imagine that any of them will be jolly, but just how bad they are might depend on the cut-off date. Nationwide House Prices and . . . read more - June 2008 Spread Bet.
June Spread Bets - last update: 16-Jun-2008
June Spread Bets >> Brent Crude dropped around $4 on the week, finishing at $134.25 and the Euro ended the week at EUR-USD $1.5380 and EUR-GBP £0.789. Elsewhere the Dax 30 fell by 0.6% and FTSE 100 fell by 1.8%. But Asia . . . read more - June Spread Bets.
Spread Trading June - last update: 09-Jun-2008
Spread Trading June >> Due to the weak US Unemployment numbers the Dow ended the week 3.3% down. The FTSE and The DAX were effected by the US and ended 3% and almost 5% down respectively while the Nikkei ended 2.2% down on the week. Brent Crude Oil hit a record $138.54 on . . . read more - Spread Trading June.
Spread Betting June - last update: 02-Jun-2008
Spread Betting June >> The FTSE finished the week 0.6% lower. By contrast, the Dax ended the week 2.2% higher, the S&P rose 1.8% and the Dow +1.3%. The Nikkei, benefiting from a weaker Yen, also rose by 2.3%. A bad week for the Euro as the plague of slowing . . . read more - Spread Betting June.
Online Spread Trading May 2008 - last update: 26-May-2008
Online Spread Trading May 2008 >> The mini-bubble burst in equity markets as investors picked up on the dilemma facing central banks; with inflation above target and still rising, banks could not cut rates to stimulate growth in the economy. Equity indices plummeted from Mondays 4-month highs with the Dow falling by nearly 4% on the week. The S&P and FTSE fell by 3.5% and the Dax by 3%. The Nikkei 1.5% fall was . . . read more - Online Spread Trading May 2008.
Online Spread Betting May 2008 - last update: 19-May-2008
Online Spread Betting May 2008 >> In Commodities, Oil pushed ahead to another new high of $127.82. This was mainly on fears that China would step up demand for fuel after the earthquake damaged several hydro-electric power plants. Late on Friday the price fell back on news that the Saudis would . . . read more - Online Spread Betting May 2008.
Spread Trading May - last update: 12-May-2008
Spread Trading May >> Oil set new record highs each day last week. A warning from Goldman Sachs that oil could hit $200 resulted in heavy buying of options to purchase oil at that level in December 2008. OPEC did not help matters, blaming speculators, rather than a lack of supply, for the recent jump in prices. Brent Crude finished the week $10 higher at $125.4. Gold held the $950 support level and bounced $26 on the . . . read more - Spread Trading May.
Spread Betting May - last update: 05-May-2008
Spread Betting May >> BP and Royal Dutch Shell benefited from the soaring oil price, but their US counterpart, Exxon Mobil failed to meet expectations. The better mood was reflected in equities rising to their highest levels since early January. Indices in the US and Japan rose by around . . . read more - Spread Betting May.
Spread Trading Online April - last update: 28-Apr-2008
Spread Trading Online April >> In Commodities Spread Betting, Oil continued to move higher, almost touching $120. Growing concerns over disruption to supplies peaked on Friday when news of shots being fired on an Iranian ship sent oil up by $3. Brent Crude Oil ended the week $3 higher at $116.34. The stronger Dollar saw gold . . . read more - Spread Trading Online April.
Online Spread Betting April - last update: 21-Apr-2008
Equity markets had their best collective week for some time. The FTSE was the lazy laggard, rising 'only' 2.7%; the DAX fared better with a 3.6% rise. The S&P and Dow saw gains of 4.3% and the Nikkei rose by around 5.5%. Looking at equities spread bets Royal Bank of Scotland stole the show with rumours of a . . . read more - Online Spread Betting April.
Spread Trading April - last update: 14-Apr-2008
Spread Trading April >> The equity market elastic finally snapped, or more accurately was cut by a pair of General Electric scissors. For much of the week, equities ignored worsening economic and corporate data and a gloomy outlook from the International Monetary Fund. Confidence numbers in the UK and US hit record lows and HBOS announced that UK . . . read more - Spread Trading April.
Spread Betting April - last update: 07-Apr-2008
Spread Betting April >> Markets opened lower as first UBS, and then Deutsche Bank warned of further write-downs. First Direct halted mortgage lending to non-customers and Lehman Brothers announced it was seeking at least $3 billion of funding. However, the early fall in prices was met with strong demand as traders . . . read more - Spread Betting April.
Spread Trading March - last update: 31-Mar-2008
Spread Trading March >> Equities had a great start to the shortened week, with banks continuing to grabbing the headlines. JP Morgan bumped up their offer for Bear Stearns and investors took this to as a cue to revalue of the sector. Closer to home it became more apparent that rumours of HBOS being trouble were false; re-assurance came from HBOS staff spending £6m on their own . . . read more - Spread Trading March.
Spread Trading Market Update - last update: 24-Mar-2008
Spread Trading Market Update >> Incredibly, US equity markets were barely changed on the week, but Europe suffered worse with the FTSE and Dax both falling by around 1%. Once again, the Nikkei took a big hit, falling by over 4% as the Yen hit a 12-year high against the . . . read more - Spread Trading Market Update.
Spread Betting Market Information - last update: 17-Mar-2008
Spread Betting Market Information >> Bingo! Gold smashed through the $1,000 barrier. The continuing collapse of the Dollar, together with contrasting fears of both higher inflation and collapsing asset prices, saw investors scrambling for safety. Both Crude Oil and gold benefited from their *safe haven status*. Gold ended up
. . . read more - Spread Betting Market Information.
Spread Bet on UK Markets - last update: 10-Mar-2008
Spread Bet on UK Markets >> Just when it looked safe to relax, after the banks reporting season had finished, the credit crunch reared its ugly head with a vengeance. As markets priced in a 0.75% cut in US rates at the March meeting the Euro, gold and oil all hit record highs. The main equity indices in the US and Europe fell by around 3% with the Dax faring slightly worse at
. . . read more - Spread Bet on UK Markets.
Spread Trading UK Markets - last update: 03-Mar-2008
Spread Trading UK Markets >> How fortunes change over a few hours in the stock markets. By Tuesday the FTSE Index was 250 points higher than the previous Fridays close. There was even talk of the worst being behind us. The growing conviction that European interest rates would, at best, remain unchanged whilst US rates would continue to fall boosted the Euro. Traders piled in, pushing the Euro to . . . read more - Spread Trading UK Markets.
UK Spread Betting - last update: 18-Feb-2008
Once again results were dominated by the financial sector. UBS announced a further record loss and Bradford and Bingley's results were worse than expected. Credit Suisse played an excellent poker hand, combining a 72% fall in profits with the confidence to increase its dividend. American Insurance Group said that due to material weaknesses in their loan valuations, losses would rise from $1 billion to $5 billion. Bank of Ireland warned that . . . read more - UK Spread Betting.
Spread Betting Websites - last update: 11-Feb-2008
The week ended with the FTSE, Dow and S&P all falling by over 4%, but the Dax and Nikkei faring slightly better at -2.9% and -3.6%. The Euro provided the main thrills for forex traders. Despite no change in European interest rates, many traders interpreted the central bank's statement as a sign . . . read more - Spread Betting Websites.
Spread Bet Feb 2008 - last update: 04-Feb-2008
Despite worsening economic news equities finished the week in fine form with FTSE 100 +2.7%, Dax 30 +2.2%, Dow +4.4% and S and P 500 +4.9%. The 1% fall in the Nikkei was partly due to its different trading hours. Microsoft stole the headlines with its $45 billion bid for Yahoo. Further sub-prime write-downs saw a record loss for UBS and a $2.3 billion loss for bond insurer MBIA. Friends Provident's . . . read more - Spread Bet Feb 2008.
Online Financial Trading - last update: 28-Jan-2008
Societe Generale took the headlines with its announcement of a record £3. 7bn fraud by a rogue trader. Further sub-prime losses were reported by Bank of America, Wachovia and Ambac. In the FX markets the Yen continued to strengthen, hitting a 2.5 year high of Y105.63 against the Dollar on . . . read more - Online Financial Trading.
Online Spread Trading - last update: 21-Jan-2008
US banks took the headlines again with Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and Wells Fargo recording losses of mind boggling size, accompanied by a mixture of dividend cuts and announcements of overseas funding. Comments from members of the European Central Bank suggesting a move towards lower rates caused the Euro to fall in value. The EUR/USD rate fell to $1.462 and EUR/GBP to £0.7480. Risk aversion trades saw the . . . read more - Online Spread Trading.
Spread Trading - last update: 17-Dec-2007
After last week's higher than expected inflation figures in both the US and Europe, numbers from the UK are keenly awaited. Also of interest will be the minutes from the Bank of England's last meeting when they voted (surprisingly) to cut rates, and retail sales . . . read more - Spread Trading.
Online Spread Betting - last update: 10-Dec-2007
Royal Bank of Scotland was the latest bank to report smaller sub-prime write-downs than the market expected and AIB pleased investors with an upbeat statement. House builders reacted well to the UK rate cut with rises of 7-9%, but Irish group Abbey saw a fall in first half profits and warned that it might need to review its dividend policy . . . read more - Online Spread Betting.
Spread Betting December - last update: 03-Dec-2007
Net moves on the week saw the Dax unchanged, FTSE -0.5%, Dow -1.5%, S&P -1.2% and Nikkei -1.8%. Financial firms across the market saw massive falls as US stalwart Freddie Mac warned that it would need to raise capital, possibly by slashing its dividend. In the forex market, the EUR USD cross briefly reached a new high of . . . read more - Spread Betting December.
Spread Betting November 2007 - last update: 26-Nov-2007
After a strong finish to equity markets on Friday, attention will return to the effects of the credit crunch, with the banks' reluctance to lend to one another causing money rates to continue rising. The European Central Bank has pledged to inject emergency funds into the money markets. Keep an eye on key confidence figures from the main . . . read more - Spread Betting November 2007.
Spread Bet Website - last update: 12-Nov-2007
Across markets the falls ranged from a barely changed Dax ?0.5% to the harder hit Asian markets with the Nikkei and Hang Seng falling by 5.5%. The FTSE and S&P fell by around 3.5% with the Dow faring worse at ?4.1%. Financials dominated the news flow with Wachovia declaring a $1.1 billion sub-prime related loss for October alone and Barclays denying further rumours . . . read more - Spread Bet Website.
Online Spreads - last update: 05-Nov-2007
Once again the week ended with record highs in oil, gold and EUR/USD as sub-prime jitters returned to take the gloss off the equity markets. The Hong Kong and Indian exchanges reached new highs at the start of the week, but equities finished on a low note with FTSE ?2.0%, Dow ?1.5%, S&P ?1.7% and Dax ?0.3%. The Nikkei held up better at +0.1%. . . . read more - Online Spreads.
Spread Bet Online - last update: 29-Oct-2007
After a strong finish to equity markets on Friday, attention will return to the effects of the credit crunch, with the banks' reluctance to lend to one another causing money rates to continue rising. The European Central Bank has pledged to inject emergency funds into the money markets, until the end of the year if . . . read more - Spread Bet Online.
Spread Bet News - last update: 22-Oct-2007
Just a week after record highs in equity markets investors decided to celebrate the anniversary of the stock market crash of 1987 by knocking 360 points off the Dow on Friday. Rising oil prices, some shocking company results and further concerns over a slump in both the US and UK housing markets sent traders . . . read more - Spread Bet News.
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